There is still an expensive war to fight, and if EU and UK politicians insist on using taxpayer funds for it, there will be little left to spend on public services

There were hopes that 2024 would be a good year. Economists talked of a soft landing, by which they meant a solid rebound from last year’s high-inflation, high-interest shock. A drop in inflation would spark cuts to the cost of borrowing while trade expanded, unemployment stayed low, and household disposable incomes increased.

This cheerful scenario was going to be played out across Europe and allow the EU and UK to pursue many of the goals, not least tackling climate change, that were delayed as ministers sought to protect business and household finances from the fallout from the pandemic and the Ukraine war.

Prime minister knows economy is likely to be in even worse shape by autumn or winter, but summer’s good news won’t impress a battered public

There was an economic logic to Rishi Sunak’s election dash, a decision that defied earlier predictions of a vote in the autumn or even winter. The prime minister could see that hopes of a recovery were fading, and with them his chances of redemption as the architect of Britain’s future prosperity.

Unemployment was going to ­continue rising. Inflation, after ­falling steadily over the past year, could bounce back in the autumn. And interest rates, which are a burden for mortgage payers and indebted businesses alike, looked like remaining stubbornly high.

Economies decide elections but with growth tentative, inflation sticky, and tax cuts unlikely, why would the PM wait

• UK general election – latest updates
• News: Sunak calls election for 4 July
• Why is Sunak calling an election now?

When you are 20 or so points behind in the opinion polls calling an election before you need to do so is a high-risk strategy. Yet Rishi Sunak has decided that holding on until the autumn is an even bigger gamble. The economy decides elections, and as far as the prime minister is concerned, this could be as good as it gets.

Sunak has only come to this view recently. After sliding into a shallow recession at the end of 2023, the economy has only just returned to growth. Living standards – which took a hammering during the cost of living crisis – have been picking up. Inflation has fallen from a high of 11.1% in October 2022 to 2.3%, only just above its target.