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Yesterday — 1 June 2024Main stream

Europe must splash the cash (and seize it) to save 2024

1 June 2024 at 12:00

There is still an expensive war to fight, and if EU and UK politicians insist on using taxpayer funds for it, there will be little left to spend on public services

There were hopes that 2024 would be a good year. Economists talked of a soft landing, by which they meant a solid rebound from last year’s high-inflation, high-interest shock. A drop in inflation would spark cuts to the cost of borrowing while trade expanded, unemployment stayed low, and household disposable incomes increased.

This cheerful scenario was going to be played out across Europe and allow the EU and UK to pursue many of the goals, not least tackling climate change, that were delayed as ministers sought to protect business and household finances from the fallout from the pandemic and the Ukraine war.

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© Photograph: REX/Shutterstock

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© Photograph: REX/Shutterstock

Whether the vote goes red or blue, baby boomers will be the winners | Philip Inman

Both Labour and Conservative are pledging to look after the older voter while Gen Z is being ignored

Baby boomers are being courted with financial inducements from both main political parties. Millennials and Gen Z, not so much. Here we assess the intergenerational impact of the election so far.

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© Photograph: fotoVoyager/Getty Images

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© Photograph: fotoVoyager/Getty Images

Finding a job in Ireland is easy. Finding a place to live is the hard bit

1 June 2024 at 05:00

Dublin does not seem a fair city to those who move there to work but can’t afford a home. Ireland’s coalition government says it is acting on housebuilding, but bosses and staff say it must try harder

Ireland’s economy is “absolutely booming,” says Stephen O’Dwyer, the founder and owner of Dublin’s Tang cafe/restaurant chain. “But it has left people facing a very unequal and difficult society to work in.”

At the top of O’Dwyer’s concerns is housing, which is cited by businesses large and small as a significant barrier to Ireland’s economic growth. The capital is not alone: cities from Cork to Limerick report acute housing shortages and rising levels of homelessness.

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© Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA

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© Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA

Before yesterdayMain stream

Fiscal tussle: who will win the battle to put up taxes the least?

30 May 2024 at 13:08

The Conservatives and Labour are embroiled in a fight to woo voters with promises to keep rates of tax low

The two main political parties are in a bidding war over which can promise to increase taxes the least. Each accuses the other of harbouring a desire to push up taxes to support a growing list of spending pledges.

The Conservatives say there is a £38.5bn funding gap in Labour’s spending promises over the next five years and that to cover it, “Labour will increase your taxes by £2,094”. Labour claim unfunded Tory spending pledges add up to £71bn, or 2% of GDP.

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© Photograph: Alex Segre/Alamy

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© Photograph: Alex Segre/Alamy

Royal Mail’s foreign sale could put a 500-year-old national service in jeopardy | Phillip Inman

29 May 2024 at 13:28

Czech tycoon’s private buyout of UK postal group would come with very limited assurances – and a weight of added debt

There is much to fear from the takeover of Royal Mail by a private financier. It is fair to say that over the longer term, everything about the 500-year-old institution could now be at risk.

The string of commitments made by the Czech billionaire Daniel Křetínský in his bid for the postal service’s parent group, International Distribution Services (IDS) – accepted by the board on Wednesday – will be vulnerable to renegotiation after just a few years.

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© Photograph: Vuk Valcic/SOPA Images/REX/Shutterstock

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© Photograph: Vuk Valcic/SOPA Images/REX/Shutterstock

Reality check: can Treasury afford pledge to raise tax-free pension allowance?

28 May 2024 at 10:54

We look at whether the Conservative pledge for a ‘triple lock plus’ can really be paid for by cracking down on tax avoidance

The Conservatives have announced plans to boost pensioners’ income with a “triple lock plus”. It is a pitch to a group who, according to many polls, are the most likely to support the Tories, and is seen as a measure designed to shore up the party’s core vote.

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© Photograph: Kumar Sriskandan/Alamy

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© Photograph: Kumar Sriskandan/Alamy

Sunak dashed for July election because hopes of UK economic recovery are fading

26 May 2024 at 01:00

Prime minister knows economy is likely to be in even worse shape by autumn or winter, but summer’s good news won’t impress a battered public

There was an economic logic to Rishi Sunak’s election dash, a decision that defied earlier predictions of a vote in the autumn or even winter. The prime minister could see that hopes of a recovery were fading, and with them his chances of redemption as the architect of Britain’s future prosperity.

Unemployment was going to ­continue rising. Inflation, after ­falling steadily over the past year, could bounce back in the autumn. And interest rates, which are a burden for mortgage payers and indebted businesses alike, looked like remaining stubbornly high.

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© Photograph: WPA/Getty Images

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© Photograph: WPA/Getty Images

Hopes grow of G7 deal to support Ukraine with $300bn in frozen Russian assets

25 May 2024 at 00:00

Foreign ministers confident of agreement to use bank assets as security for Ukraine reconstruction loan

Hopes of a multi-country deal to use $300bn of Russian state assets frozen in the European banking system to support Ukraine have grown after it emerged that G7 ministers were confident of overcoming technical and political obstacles at a meeting in northern Italy on Saturday.

The Canadian finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, said she was optimistic that G7 leaders would reach an agreement, as support coalesced around a plan to use frozen Russian central bank assets as security for a $50bn (£39bn) loan.

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© Photograph: Massimo Pinca/Reuters

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© Photograph: Massimo Pinca/Reuters

UK inflation falls by less than expected to 2.3%, reducing chance of June rate cut

22 May 2024 at 03:11

Drop in April is smaller than forecast but level is still lowest in almost three years

UK inflation fell to 2.3% in April – its lowest level for almost three years – but the decline was smaller than expected, denting hopes of an early interest rate cut.

City analysts had forecast the annual increase in the cost of goods and services would fall to 2.1%, close to the Bank of England’s 2% target.

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© Photograph: Matthew Horwood/Getty Images

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© Photograph: Matthew Horwood/Getty Images

Current and future chancellor face tough choices after IMF report on UK economy

21 May 2024 at 12:25

Body says £30bn fiscal gap cannot be filled by higher growth or extra borrowing. So how will No 11 ease pressure on public finances?

A report that tells the UK government it faces a £30bn funding gap that cannot be filled by higher growth or extra borrowing is a blow to both the current chancellor and the next one.

Tuesday’s International Monetary Fund assessment of the UK economy and Whitehall spending argues that betting on the economy revving up over the rest of the decade will not be sufficient to pay for all the likely welfare bills associated with an ageing population.

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© Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

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© Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

UK interest rate cut is ‘possible’ this summer, says Bank of England deputy

Ben Broadbent says direct impact of Covid and Ukraine war on inflation has faded and BoE is waiting for longer-term effects to decline

UK interest rates could be cut this summer, the Bank of England’s outgoing deputy governor said on Monday, adding to the expectation that a first reduction in borrowing costs could come as soon as next month.

Ben Broadbent, the Bank’s deputy governor for monetary policy, said that if the economy evolves as expected, borrowing costs could possibly be lowered “some time over the summer” in response to a steep fall in inflation.

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© Photograph: Hannah McKay/Reuters

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© Photograph: Hannah McKay/Reuters

If Putin wins in Ukraine, the British economy will be in the firing line | Phillip Inman

18 May 2024 at 12:00

We and the EU must show the Russian leader we mean business and seize $300bn of his country’s central bank funds

Vladimir Putin is digging deep to win the war with Ukraine. And it could be only months before the tide turns in his favour. If he pummels Ukraine into submission, a military victory will quickly become a wider economic disaster, which is why we under­estimate at our peril how much we need to focus on the war.

The Russian leader, who was inaugurated for a fifth term as president a fortnight ago, ditched his old friend and defence minister Sergei Shoigu on Monday in favour of an economist to make sure Moscow’s war machine runs more efficiently. That economist, Andrei Belousov, has been likened to Albert Speer, the architect who served as the minister of armaments and war production in Nazi Germany.

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© Photograph: RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL PRESS OFFICE/AFP/Getty Images

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© Photograph: RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL PRESS OFFICE/AFP/Getty Images

Jeremy Hunt accused of exaggerating Tories’ economic record

Chancellor also criticised for ‘dodgy dossier’ on Labour plans as he aims to make low tax a key election issue

Jeremy Hunt has been accused of exaggerating the Conservatives’ economic record and presenting a “dodgy dossier” on Labour’s spending plans, as he moved to put low tax at the heart of his party’s offering at the next election.

The chancellor gave a speech in central London on Friday, pitching the Conservatives as having helped the UK recover from economic troubles more quickly than expected. He also signalled a further cut to national insurance in the autumn, having already reduced the tax from 12p in the pound to 8p.

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© Photograph: Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty Images

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© Photograph: Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty Images

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