Disappointing UK GDP report shows economy contracted by 0.1% in both September and October

Today’s GDP report also shows the economy only grew by 1.1% over the last year – a weak performance.

The ONS says:

GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.1% in the three months to October 2025, compared with the same three months a year ago. Over this period services grew by 1.5% and construction grew by 1.1%, whereas production fell by 1.3%.

GDP is estimated to be 1.1% higher in October 2025, compared with October 2024.

“The economy contracted slightly in the latest three months, as production fell again and services growth stalled.

“Within production, there was continued weakness in car manufacturing, with the industry only making a slight recovery in October from the substantial fall in output seen in the previous month.

“Overall services showed no growth in the latest three months, continuing the recent trend of slowing in this sector. There were falls in wholesale and scientific research, offset by growth in rental and leasing and retail.”

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

In the energy sector, Russia’s revenues from exports of crude oil and refined products has fallen to its lowest level since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The International Energy Agency has reported this morning that Moscow’s sales of fossil fuels fell again in November due to lower export volumes and weaker prices.

These brighter prospects extend to our 2026 forecast, which we have upgraded by 90 kb/d, to 860 kb/d y-o-y.

“We need to ask who is setting the agenda for the UK’s future with AI.”

“In the absence of independent regulation or scrutiny, we’re at the mercy of technology companies’ commercial interests aligning with what the public want.”

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as Evoke decides to undertake a review of the Company’s strategic options

European stock markets are mostly in the red this morning, as defence company stocks fall.

Shares in German automotive and arms manufacturer Rheinmetall are down 3.3%, UK weapons maker BAE System has dropped by 1.27%, and Italian defence firm Leonardo has lost 2.2%.

Mainland European equity markets are heading lower in a day that will be dominated by monetary policy out of the Americas.

Notably, the defence sector has particularly suffered this morning, with the likes of BAE Systems, Rheinmetall, and Thales lose traction as the end of the Russia-Ukraine war comes into sight. Unfortunately for Europe, the peace agreement appears to be a deal Trump has formed with Russia behind the back of European leaders whom the President has labelled “weak”.