Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

ING’s UK economist James Smith has spotted that government hiring is no longer supporting the jobs market.

He writes:

Companies – especially in retail and hospitality – have been shedding workers this year, partly because of earlier tax and minimum wage hikes. Hiring surveys remain weak.

Until recently, that was helpfully offset by resilience in government hiring, but that appears to be changing. Public sector employment has also now fallen for three consecutive months, judging by those payroll numbers.

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

• Average mortgage for UK first-time buyer hits record high of £210,800

Britain’s financial watchdog is setting out plans today to reform the UK mortgage market to help first-time buyers and the self-employed onto the housing ladder.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is proposing to improve four areas of the mortgage market – including rule changes to allow lenders to offer ‘more flexible’ mortages.

First-time buyers & underserved consumers: Simplifying mortgage rules to allow more flexible products that reflect different working patterns and income levels at different stages of life.

Later-life lending: Reviewing retirement interest-only requirements to make them more accessible. Exploring ways to improve advice to help people confidently plan for later life. Conducting a focused market study to ensure the lifetime mortgage market can meet the changing needs of future customers.

Innovation & disclosure: Encouraging the use of data and technology, such as AI, to help brokers give better and faster advice while keeping a human touch. Looking at ways to make advertising and disclosure rules simpler, so consumers can understand information online more easily.

Protecting vulnerable consumers: Working with partners to support people affected by financial abuse and help those using a mortgage to manage or consolidate debt.

Disappointing UK GDP report shows economy contracted by 0.1% in both September and October

Today’s GDP report also shows the economy only grew by 1.1% over the last year – a weak performance.

The ONS says:

GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.1% in the three months to October 2025, compared with the same three months a year ago. Over this period services grew by 1.5% and construction grew by 1.1%, whereas production fell by 1.3%.

GDP is estimated to be 1.1% higher in October 2025, compared with October 2024.

“The economy contracted slightly in the latest three months, as production fell again and services growth stalled.

“Within production, there was continued weakness in car manufacturing, with the industry only making a slight recovery in October from the substantial fall in output seen in the previous month.

“Overall services showed no growth in the latest three months, continuing the recent trend of slowing in this sector. There were falls in wholesale and scientific research, offset by growth in rental and leasing and retail.”

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

In the energy sector, Russia’s revenues from exports of crude oil and refined products has fallen to its lowest level since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The International Energy Agency has reported this morning that Moscow’s sales of fossil fuels fell again in November due to lower export volumes and weaker prices.

These brighter prospects extend to our 2026 forecast, which we have upgraded by 90 kb/d, to 860 kb/d y-o-y.

“We need to ask who is setting the agenda for the UK’s future with AI.”

“In the absence of independent regulation or scrutiny, we’re at the mercy of technology companies’ commercial interests aligning with what the public want.”

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as Evoke decides to undertake a review of the Company’s strategic options

European stock markets are mostly in the red this morning, as defence company stocks fall.

Shares in German automotive and arms manufacturer Rheinmetall are down 3.3%, UK weapons maker BAE System has dropped by 1.27%, and Italian defence firm Leonardo has lost 2.2%.

Mainland European equity markets are heading lower in a day that will be dominated by monetary policy out of the Americas.

Notably, the defence sector has particularly suffered this morning, with the likes of BAE Systems, Rheinmetall, and Thales lose traction as the end of the Russia-Ukraine war comes into sight. Unfortunately for Europe, the peace agreement appears to be a deal Trump has formed with Russia behind the back of European leaders whom the President has labelled “weak”.