Google apologises after suffering a major Cloud outage in its London region that caused problems at banks, Revolut, and court video cameras

The pound has rallied after Britain’s unemployment rate fell unexpectedly this morning to 4.7%.

Sterling has gained half a cent against the US dollar to $1.3352, as the City welcomes the news that employment rose in the last quarter.

“This data has caught the market on the hop, with traders scrambling to respond and boost exposure to the pound. Good news has been a touch more prevalent for the UK of late, which is just the kind of framing the government needs heading into the budget, though signs of more resilience in the labour market do of course mean the BoE has more room to respond to higher inflation.”

“The labour market remains relatively flat overall. This resilience in the face of headwinds driven by global events is welcome. But underlying problems remain, with around one million young people not in education, employment or training and overall employment more than two million short of the Government’s 80% employment rate target.

To fix those challenges we need to change the benefit system so it offers active help to all who need it, but also make it easier for employers to create jobs. “

Sky-high oil prices and geopolitical turmoil have made less of a dent than feared … just don’t bank on it to last

Inside the vast, glass-walled Queen Sirikit conference centre in Bangkok, the air-conditioned atmosphere was calm as policymakers from more than 100 countries gathered this week for the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting – and contemplated the surprising strength of the global economy.

A small army of smiling, uniformed Thai staff were on hand to explain the baffling geography of the heavily guarded building, where lunch options were as cosmopolitan as the delegates – including, improbably, a Burger King.

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

• John Healey poised to raise taxes on banks in budget

Elsewhere in the markets today, South Korea’s Kospi share index has recorded its biggest weekly loss since October 2008, down 14.5% this week.

Although the Kospi did rise today (+2%), it was still a bad week for technology stocks – as investors worried about the borrowing, spending commitments and future profitability of AI companies.

The reality is that while companies embraced AI aggressively as it first emerged, now they are figuring out how to use it effectively while keeping AI costs under control. A slowing, more careful, path towards corporate adoption has been missed by the market which remained wildly frothy about valuations.

“A UK bank tax risk is now a base case. If it is confirmed on 28 October, it’ll be the size and timing that will be key.

If Healey does go ahead, shares of Lloyds and NatWest, which are almost entirely exposed to the UK, would likely be impacted most, and you are seeing this already in the share price reaction today. Barclays is partly exposed. HSBC is least exposed in the mix.”

John Healey has spoken to UK journalists at the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok, and said banks are a part of the “jewel” in the UK’s economic crown

Today’s better-than-forecast UK growth report is good news for chancellor John Healey as he hobnobs with other finance ministers at the IMF meeting in Bangkok.

But it may encourage the Bank of England to raise interest rates as soon as its next meeting in November….

“While August’s unexpected uptick all but confirms that the OBR will raise its growth forecast for this year from 1.1% to 1.4%, the Chancellor still faces a major Budget headache, as elevated borrowing costs eat into fiscal headroom and increase pressure for tax rises.

“These unexpectedly upbeat figures will further embolden hawkish sentiment among policymakers by reinforcing the view that the economy is strong enough to withstand a rate rise, making a November hike look highly likely.”

“The latest GDP figures are encouraging, with the economy growing by 0.7% in the three months to August, its strongest growth rate since May. On its current trajectory, the UK is likely to record growth comfortably above 1% this year, which would probably be enough to make it the second-fastest-growing economy in the G7.

“The UK’s growth performance has been a bright spot amid a less impressive run of economic news following events in the Middle East. Business investment has been an important driver, particularly spending on ICT hardware, likely linked to the build-out of AI infrastructure. The UK still lags the US in both the scale of that investment and the boost it provides to growth, but it is making progress and remains ahead of many of its European peers.

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including the IMF meeting in Thailand and the IEA’s new oil market report

• Full story: US inflation rose to 3.7% in September

• Global financial system is failing developing countries, says Ed Miliband

UK government borrowing costs are dropping this morning, which will please John Healey and the IMF alike!

The yield, or interest rate, on UK 10-year bonds is down 3.5 basis points to 5.4%, while thirty-year bond yields are 3bps lower at 5.89%.

Chancellor John Healey is expected to pay for all new giveaways in this month’s Budget — including a cost-of-living package — with higher taxes or spending cuts rather than more borrowing.

People briefed on UK Budget preparations told the FT that the October 28 fiscal package would be “scorecard positive” in 2029-30, the final year of the parliament, meaning that all extra discretionary spending was fully funded.

China’s exports, imports, and trade surplus all comfortably beat expectations in September as the trade boom continued. Key trade ties look set to remain stable through year-end, which should keep this year’s key growth engine humming.

US economists developed models that help central bankers and finance ministers to stabilise their economies

• Business live – latest updates

Two US economists have won the 2026 Nobel economics prize for their work developing models that help central bankers and finance ministers to stabilise their countries, avoiding long recessions and runaway inflation.

Robert Hall of Stanford University, California, and Michael Woodford of Columbia University, New York, were recognised for developing the “microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilisation”, giving policymakers better tools to smooth out the peaks and troughs of their economies.

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel has been awarded to Robert Hall and Neil Woodford for developing the “microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilisation”

There’s some movement in the Nobel economics prize betting, with around 45 minutes to go until the announcement.

Sidney Winter, the professor emeritus of management at the Wharton School, and Lawrence Katz, the Elisabeth Allison Professor of Economics at Harvard University, have both appeared high on Polymarket’s odds at times this morning (although the market is very volatile).