The two Tory PMs both told voters the economy had turned a corner – but there is little comparison now with 27 years ago

With a Labour victory looking increasingly probable, John Major’s pitch to voters in 1997 was simple. Britain had come a long way, the then prime minister said in his foreword to his party’s manifesto. “We must be sure that we do not throw away what we have gained, or lose the opportunities we have earned.”

Sound familiar? It should, because it is exactly the same argument Rishi Sunak is deploying as he seeks to defy the opinion polls and win a fifth successive general election victory for the Conservatives.

From unemployment to inflation, the key data the Tories and Labour must explain to voters

Rishi Sunak’s slim chance of pulling off a victory against the odds in July’s general election depends on voters buying the argument that tough decisions taken since he became prime minister are paying off.

That claim will be tested over the next six weeks – with every piece of economic news more closely scrutinised than usual for evidence that the UK’s tentative economic recovery is gaining momentum or has started to falter.

Economies decide elections but with growth tentative, inflation sticky, and tax cuts unlikely, why would the PM wait

• UK general election – latest updates
• News: Sunak calls election for 4 July
• Why is Sunak calling an election now?

When you are 20 or so points behind in the opinion polls calling an election before you need to do so is a high-risk strategy. Yet Rishi Sunak has decided that holding on until the autumn is an even bigger gamble. The economy decides elections, and as far as the prime minister is concerned, this could be as good as it gets.

Sunak has only come to this view recently. After sliding into a shallow recession at the end of 2023, the economy has only just returned to growth. Living standards – which took a hammering during the cost of living crisis – have been picking up. Inflation has fallen from a high of 11.1% in October 2022 to 2.3%, only just above its target.

Service sector inflation, monitored closely by Bank of England, barely budged in April

• UK inflation falls by less than expected to 2.3%
• Business live – latest updates

The annual inflation rate fell sharply in April. Prices are rising more slowly than at any time in almost three years. Inflation is lower in the UK than it is in the EU.

Even so, the latest bulletin on the cost of living from the Office for National Statistics was mildly disappointing. April’s inflation figure was always going to be good, with a sharp fall guaranteed by the fact the energy price increases of a year earlier were not repeated.

World body’s latest health check of UK economy says ‘unpopular revenue-raising measures’ may be needed

Jeremy Hunt is preparing a pre-election cut in national insurance despite a warning from the International Monetary Fund of a looming £30bn hole in the public finances, Downing Street has indicated.

Rishi Sunak’s spokesperson said the government rejected the IMF’s argument that there was no room for a third cut in NI in less than a year and that the Treasury should instead be thinking about tax increases or spending cuts.