The two Tory PMs both told voters the economy had turned a corner – but there is little comparison now with 27 years ago

With a Labour victory looking increasingly probable, John Major’s pitch to voters in 1997 was simple. Britain had come a long way, the then prime minister said in his foreword to his party’s manifesto. “We must be sure that we do not throw away what we have gained, or lose the opportunities we have earned.”

Sound familiar? It should, because it is exactly the same argument Rishi Sunak is deploying as he seeks to defy the opinion polls and win a fifth successive general election victory for the Conservatives.

Sticking to the Tories’ nonsensical fiscal rules, as it says it will, would be a political and economic mistake

Labour knows what it is like to inherit an economic mess. It did so in 1974, when Britain was on the verge of a period of high inflation and rising unemployment. It did so in the even tougher circumstances of 1945, and it will do so again if it wins on 4 July.

Things are not as bleak as they were when the second world war ended, but coping with the twin shocks of the past five years – a pandemic and a European war – has been a struggle. Repairing the damage will be costly and time consuming.

Larry Elliott is the Guardian’s economics editor

The economy is growing again and inflation is only just above government’s 2% target, but it is all too little, too late

Winning five elections in a row is something no party has managed in modern times, and there are reasons for that.

Voters tire of the ruling party and want something new and fresh. Even more importantly, being in power for a long time increases the chances of bad stuff happening that tarnishes the government’s reputation. In the last 50 years, there has been a recession or economic crisis every 10 years or so on average: the mid 1970s, the early 80s, the early 90s, the late 2000s and the early 2020s.

From unemployment to inflation, the key data the Tories and Labour must explain to voters

Rishi Sunak’s slim chance of pulling off a victory against the odds in July’s general election depends on voters buying the argument that tough decisions taken since he became prime minister are paying off.

That claim will be tested over the next six weeks – with every piece of economic news more closely scrutinised than usual for evidence that the UK’s tentative economic recovery is gaining momentum or has started to falter.

Economies decide elections but with growth tentative, inflation sticky, and tax cuts unlikely, why would the PM wait

• UK general election – latest updates
• News: Sunak calls election for 4 July
• Why is Sunak calling an election now?

When you are 20 or so points behind in the opinion polls calling an election before you need to do so is a high-risk strategy. Yet Rishi Sunak has decided that holding on until the autumn is an even bigger gamble. The economy decides elections, and as far as the prime minister is concerned, this could be as good as it gets.

Sunak has only come to this view recently. After sliding into a shallow recession at the end of 2023, the economy has only just returned to growth. Living standards – which took a hammering during the cost of living crisis – have been picking up. Inflation has fallen from a high of 11.1% in October 2022 to 2.3%, only just above its target.

Service sector inflation, monitored closely by Bank of England, barely budged in April

• UK inflation falls by less than expected to 2.3%
• Business live – latest updates

The annual inflation rate fell sharply in April. Prices are rising more slowly than at any time in almost three years. Inflation is lower in the UK than it is in the EU.

Even so, the latest bulletin on the cost of living from the Office for National Statistics was mildly disappointing. April’s inflation figure was always going to be good, with a sharp fall guaranteed by the fact the energy price increases of a year earlier were not repeated.

World body’s latest health check of UK economy says ‘unpopular revenue-raising measures’ may be needed

Jeremy Hunt is preparing a pre-election cut in national insurance despite a warning from the International Monetary Fund of a looming £30bn hole in the public finances, Downing Street has indicated.

Rishi Sunak’s spokesperson said the government rejected the IMF’s argument that there was no room for a third cut in NI in less than a year and that the Treasury should instead be thinking about tax increases or spending cuts.

Employers in UK, one of 15 countries studied, willing to pay 14% wage premium for jobs requiring AI skills

The sectors of the global economy most heavily exposed to artificial intelligence (AI) are witnessing a marked productivity increase and command a significant wage premium, according to a report.

Boosting hopes that AI might help lift the global economy out of a 15-year, low-growth trough, a PwC study found productivity growth was almost five times as rapid in parts of the economy where AI penetration was highest than in less exposed sectors.

Protectionism in the form of tariffs is justified but the focus will be on whether Beijing retaliates

The global economy is fragmenting and a new era of protectionism has dawned. Dreams by free marketeers of a frictionless world in which goods and services moved seamlessly from country to country are dead.

That was the clear message from Joe Biden’s decision last week to target China with a range of new, much higher tariffs on electric vehicles and a range of other products crucial to sectors seen by the White House as vital to the future health of the US economy and to national security.

The chancellor will have good news to pass on this week. But he knows the cost of living crisis may not be over yet

Jeremy Hunt knows it. Rachel Reeves knows it too. The Office for National Statistics will come bearing good news on Wednesday when it releases the latest inflation figures. The only real question is just how good the news will be.

In the year to March, annual inflation as measured by the consumer prices index stood at 3.2%. The figure for April will be a lot lower and if Hunt gets lucky it might even fall as low as the government’s 2% target.