The City expects a cut in interest rates on Thursday but the economic prospects for 2026 complicate the picture

In the economic gloom of Labour’s first year in power, Rachel Reeves has had a reliable shred of comfort to cling to: five times since the general election, the Bank of England has cut interest rates.

This week, in all likelihood, the chancellor will get a sixth to shout about, as Threadneedle Street prepares to reduce borrowing costs in an early Christmas present that will be seized upon by the Treasury.