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Anti-Trans Legislation In The Midterms: How to Legalize A Genocide
20 October 2026 at 13:59
What's actually on the ballot this Fall? If you are in any sort of battleground state this midterm season it is pretty hard to escape the wave of transphobic rhetoric and attack ads coming from a right wing that has increasingly little to offer in terms of actual policy. But so much of the vitriol avoids the reality- what is the state of trans peoples' legal precarity in the US right now, and what is actually on the ballot this November? This post aims to give a guide to where we're at and where we're going.
Let's start with a review of the laws already on the books. As of July, things were already pretty bleak throughout much of the country. Separated/highlighted states have additional ballot initiatives this November. (FL, ID, KS, TX): Four states have earned "Do Not Travel" advisories: Idaho, Florida, Kansas, and Texas. Kansas bathroom ban allows for everyday citizens to seek out transgender people in bathrooms and sue them for large sums of money, creating a bounty hunter system in the state. Meanwhile, Idaho's ban can result in 5-year prison sentences. Florida has a law that allows for the arrest of transgender people for using bathrooms according to their gender identity and another policy targets transgender people's drivers licenses. Florida has also put into effect a policy that says trans people "misrepresenting" their gender on their drivers license could be guilty of fraud and has begun erasing Pride crosswalks across the state. (AL, AR, IA, IN, LA, MS, OH, OK, ND, SC, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY): These states have passed deeply troubling legislation targeting transgender adults in extremely harmful new ways. Utah has a bathroom ban for transgender adults. Alabama has also passed a Don't Say Gay bill that includes a bathroom ban on college campuses. Many states, including Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, and others listed in this category have gone so far as to legislatively erase transgender people, effectively removing any legal rights associated with their gender identities. (MO, NE) High-Risk States (GA, NH, MT): All of these states have passed anti-trans laws, but they haven't reached the same level of severity as the worst states. Missouri for example, prohibits gender-affirming care for incarcerated adults as well as transgender youth and have seen new laws proposed this cycle going even further. Nebraska's governor has issued an executive order ending legal recognition of trans people (AZ, VA) Low-Risk States (DE, ME, MI, NV, PA, WI, DC): These states have largely refrained from targeting transgender adults, although they haven't taken extraordinary steps to protect adult transgender rights either. (CO, VT, WA) Most Protective States (CA, CT, HI, IL, MA, MD, MN, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI): These states have gone above and beyond in safeguarding the rights and well-being of transgender individuals, making them highly desirable places to live for those in search of security. As we will see however, Colorado and Washington are both slipping quietly towards more anti-trans legal positions. ----------------------- So what's actually on the ballot this Fall? Here's a breakdown: Voters in seven states this fall will weigh more than half a dozen ballot initiatives with direct bearings on LGBTQ+ people — disproportionately on transgender youth. ... Nearly half of LGBTQ+-related ballot initiatives this year would restrict trans student-athletes from competing in line with their gender identity, an issue championed overwhelmingly by Republicans and by a rising share of Democrats. Not all of the initiatives are negative, though. The bad: Arizona Arizona voters will decide this fall whether trans student-athletes may continue to compete on school sports teams that align with their gender identity. A ballot initiative introduced late last year by state Rep. Selina Bliss, a Republican running for reelection, would effectively restore a 2022 state law restricting trans athletes' participation that a federal appeals court had blocked in 2024. Colorado Colorado voters will decide whether to bar trans student-athletes from competing in line with their gender identity by designating K-12 and collegiate sports teams based on students' "biological reproductive systems." The ballot initiative qualified for the general election after Protect Kids Colorado, the organization behind it, collected more than 168,000 signatures statewide. Voters will also decide whether to ban transition-related surgeries for minors, and whether state or federal funds, Medicaid reimbursements or insurance coverage can be used to help pay for them. Such surgeries are already rare. The measure, also introduced by Protect Kids Colorado, does not directly mention nonsurgical care. Missouri In Missouri, voters will decide whether to reverse a 2024 amendment adding abortion protections to the state constitution. The new proposal would ban abortions in almost all cases, with exceptions for rape and incest, though only through the first trimester, and in medical emergencies throughout pregnancy. It would also add language to the state constitution banning gender-affirming medical care for trans minors — prohibited by law in Missouri since 2023. Nebraska Voters in Nebraska will decide whether to add language to the state constitution requiring public and qualifying private schools to designate athletic teams based on "biological sex," and expressly declare that girls' sports "shall not be open to students of the male sex." The ballot initiative qualified for the general election in August, after organizers collected more than 130,000 signatures from across the state. ... Nebraska law already prohibits trans student-athletes from participating in sports in line with their gender identity from kindergarten through college. Washington Voters in Washington will decide whether to bar trans student-athletes from girls' school sports teams by requiring every girl in the state to have her sex assigned at birth verified by a doctor — through either genetic or hormone tests or an examination of her reproductive anatomy — to determine eligibility for K-12 sports. The good: Vermont Voters in Vermont will decide this fall whether to add an equal rights amendment to the state constitution. The proposal, introduced in 2023 by a coalition of Democratic state lawmakers, would prohibit unequal treatment "on account of a person's race, ethnicity, sex, religion, disability, sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, or national origin." In Vermont, a constitutional amendment must pass two legislative sessions before it can go before voters. Virginia Virginia voters will decide whether to repeal language in the state constitution barring same-sex couples from marrying, and instead establish an affirmative right to marriage between two consenting adults regardless of their sex, gender or race. The proposal, first introduced in 2024, qualified for the November ballot after several failed attempts. In Virginia, proposed amendments to the constitution must be approved by the state House and Senate twice before they can appear before voters. ----------------------- That's the good and the bad, what about the ugly? The ugly truth of all of this: These ballot measures are almost certainly a trial run for the 2028 presidential election. June 2026 Hot Sheet: 2026 Anti-Trans Measures Relying on a a 2004 Playbook Why Republicans are focusing on transgender issues in competitive 2026 campaigns In 2004, a coordinated wave of ballot initiatives against marriage equality swept the country, leaving a trail of political wreckage for our community and the entire nation. That same playbook is back for the 2026 midterm elections, and just like more than two decades ago, it's not about public safety or protecting children, it's about political power. ... Fast forward to 2026. Targeted questions in Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska, and Washington ask voters to roll back protections and enshrine discrimination against transgender people into state law. These states and the underlying efforts during this midterm cycle also serve as testing grounds for the 2028 Presidential election. Political operatives will stress-test field operations, build voter databases, and perfect fear-based messaging. They will seek out which disinformation about LGBTQ people can flip a swing district. If the strategy succeeds in November, it will scale nationwide in 2028. And if you can't find the evidence to justify your claims, you can always just manufacture it: 'Trans' Student Mailers Hit Texas Homes As Advocacy Group Denies Sending Them Fact Check: Video Of Transgender, LGBTQ+ People Blocked From Women's Restrooms Is NOT Real Footage How Russia Is Attacking the Midterms with a Mother Jones Deepfake Researchers tracked $80 million in political ads using AI—and Republicans were behind 83% of them ----------------------- How are we doing in on defense? Results appear to be mixed and support is dwindling among erstwhile allies, unfortunately. Many of our legislative victories are happening in the courts behind closed doors, while publicly many Dem politicians are abandoning the fight and ceding unnecessary ground. Judge allows US states' lawsuit challenging transgender care probes to move forward The 16 states, led by New York and Massachusetts, along with the District of Columbia sued in August to challenge a pair of memos issued to DOJ employees implementing Trump's January 2025 executive order that directed the Justice Department to prioritize such probes. Colorado and Michigan Become the Latest Blue States to Quietly End Medicaid Support for Trans Youth as 12 Others Pledge Continued Coverage Democrats in tight Midwest US races split on trans rights strategy Some Democrats are recalibrating their approach to transgender issues as they seek a path to power "I don't want to be on that side of it, but I'm being honest — I'd be lying to you if I said differently," Newsom told The Associated Press as he was campaigning recently in South Carolina. "I haven't been able to figure out how to make it fair from my perspective." ... Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, another likely Democratic presidential contender, has taken the opposite position. He has consistently criticized state-level bans and restrictions on transgender athletes, calling them "bullying" and a "setback for equality." Following the recent Supreme Court ruling that upheld state bans on transgender athletes, Pritzker, whose cousin is transgender, reaffirmed his position on social media. "There's a place for you in Illinois," he wrote. ----------------------- And Fourth: what's coming next? Win or lose in November, the legal and political battle over trans kids and schools will continue. But there is no chance that the attacks will stop there. Their next immediate target is healthcare for youth and adults, while the administration begins building a legal case to criminalize transness as a mental illness nationwide. Trump is threatening trans-affirming school districts. Student activists are fighting back. Final Rule Prohibits Federal Medicaid And CHIP Funds For Health Care For Transgender Youth On August 11, 2026, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) issued a final rule to prohibit the use of federal Medicaid and Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) funds for the treatment of gender dysphoria for those under age 18 and age 19, respectively. The rule is expected to disrupt access to care for low-income families and place new burdens on states and other stakeholders in states where care remains lawful. The rule, which was accompanied by a press release, will take effect on October 13, 2026. Trump's State Department Admits to Investigating All Passport Applicants For "Evidence of a Prior Sex Change" Department of Justice to fund studies of gender dysphoria and violent behavior "It looks to me that the administration's already decided what it wants the science to say," says Meghan Maury, policy director at the Transgender Law Center, a nonprofit organization. ... Researchers studying gender identity say they are puzzled by the funding notice, in part because moves by President Donald Trump's administration may make it harder to address NIJ's proposed research questions. The administration has cut federal funding for research on gender minorities and directed federal agencies to define people according to biological sex assigned at birth. Early in his second administration, Trump moved to strip self-described gender identity and sexual orientation from national surveys. "If you're instructed from the beginning that you can't actually recognize the humanity of a population or their self-determined language, then it automatically sets the research off on the wrong foot," says Elana Redfield, federal policy director at the University of California, Los Angeles's Williams Institute for sexual orientation and gender identity law and policy. Trump's FY2027 Budget: Continued Rollback of LGBTQ+ Protections Many additional pending legal challenges and federal crackdowns can be viewed here: Trump Anti-LGBTQ+ Executive Order Litigation Tracker
Let's start with a review of the laws already on the books. As of July, things were already pretty bleak throughout much of the country. Separated/highlighted states have additional ballot initiatives this November. (FL, ID, KS, TX): Four states have earned "Do Not Travel" advisories: Idaho, Florida, Kansas, and Texas. Kansas bathroom ban allows for everyday citizens to seek out transgender people in bathrooms and sue them for large sums of money, creating a bounty hunter system in the state. Meanwhile, Idaho's ban can result in 5-year prison sentences. Florida has a law that allows for the arrest of transgender people for using bathrooms according to their gender identity and another policy targets transgender people's drivers licenses. Florida has also put into effect a policy that says trans people "misrepresenting" their gender on their drivers license could be guilty of fraud and has begun erasing Pride crosswalks across the state. (AL, AR, IA, IN, LA, MS, OH, OK, ND, SC, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY): These states have passed deeply troubling legislation targeting transgender adults in extremely harmful new ways. Utah has a bathroom ban for transgender adults. Alabama has also passed a Don't Say Gay bill that includes a bathroom ban on college campuses. Many states, including Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, and others listed in this category have gone so far as to legislatively erase transgender people, effectively removing any legal rights associated with their gender identities. (MO, NE) High-Risk States (GA, NH, MT): All of these states have passed anti-trans laws, but they haven't reached the same level of severity as the worst states. Missouri for example, prohibits gender-affirming care for incarcerated adults as well as transgender youth and have seen new laws proposed this cycle going even further. Nebraska's governor has issued an executive order ending legal recognition of trans people (AZ, VA) Low-Risk States (DE, ME, MI, NV, PA, WI, DC): These states have largely refrained from targeting transgender adults, although they haven't taken extraordinary steps to protect adult transgender rights either. (CO, VT, WA) Most Protective States (CA, CT, HI, IL, MA, MD, MN, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI): These states have gone above and beyond in safeguarding the rights and well-being of transgender individuals, making them highly desirable places to live for those in search of security. As we will see however, Colorado and Washington are both slipping quietly towards more anti-trans legal positions. ----------------------- So what's actually on the ballot this Fall? Here's a breakdown: Voters in seven states this fall will weigh more than half a dozen ballot initiatives with direct bearings on LGBTQ+ people — disproportionately on transgender youth. ... Nearly half of LGBTQ+-related ballot initiatives this year would restrict trans student-athletes from competing in line with their gender identity, an issue championed overwhelmingly by Republicans and by a rising share of Democrats. Not all of the initiatives are negative, though. The bad: Arizona Arizona voters will decide this fall whether trans student-athletes may continue to compete on school sports teams that align with their gender identity. A ballot initiative introduced late last year by state Rep. Selina Bliss, a Republican running for reelection, would effectively restore a 2022 state law restricting trans athletes' participation that a federal appeals court had blocked in 2024. Colorado Colorado voters will decide whether to bar trans student-athletes from competing in line with their gender identity by designating K-12 and collegiate sports teams based on students' "biological reproductive systems." The ballot initiative qualified for the general election after Protect Kids Colorado, the organization behind it, collected more than 168,000 signatures statewide. Voters will also decide whether to ban transition-related surgeries for minors, and whether state or federal funds, Medicaid reimbursements or insurance coverage can be used to help pay for them. Such surgeries are already rare. The measure, also introduced by Protect Kids Colorado, does not directly mention nonsurgical care. Missouri In Missouri, voters will decide whether to reverse a 2024 amendment adding abortion protections to the state constitution. The new proposal would ban abortions in almost all cases, with exceptions for rape and incest, though only through the first trimester, and in medical emergencies throughout pregnancy. It would also add language to the state constitution banning gender-affirming medical care for trans minors — prohibited by law in Missouri since 2023. Nebraska Voters in Nebraska will decide whether to add language to the state constitution requiring public and qualifying private schools to designate athletic teams based on "biological sex," and expressly declare that girls' sports "shall not be open to students of the male sex." The ballot initiative qualified for the general election in August, after organizers collected more than 130,000 signatures from across the state. ... Nebraska law already prohibits trans student-athletes from participating in sports in line with their gender identity from kindergarten through college. Washington Voters in Washington will decide whether to bar trans student-athletes from girls' school sports teams by requiring every girl in the state to have her sex assigned at birth verified by a doctor — through either genetic or hormone tests or an examination of her reproductive anatomy — to determine eligibility for K-12 sports. The good: Vermont Voters in Vermont will decide this fall whether to add an equal rights amendment to the state constitution. The proposal, introduced in 2023 by a coalition of Democratic state lawmakers, would prohibit unequal treatment "on account of a person's race, ethnicity, sex, religion, disability, sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, or national origin." In Vermont, a constitutional amendment must pass two legislative sessions before it can go before voters. Virginia Virginia voters will decide whether to repeal language in the state constitution barring same-sex couples from marrying, and instead establish an affirmative right to marriage between two consenting adults regardless of their sex, gender or race. The proposal, first introduced in 2024, qualified for the November ballot after several failed attempts. In Virginia, proposed amendments to the constitution must be approved by the state House and Senate twice before they can appear before voters. ----------------------- That's the good and the bad, what about the ugly? The ugly truth of all of this: These ballot measures are almost certainly a trial run for the 2028 presidential election. June 2026 Hot Sheet: 2026 Anti-Trans Measures Relying on a a 2004 Playbook Why Republicans are focusing on transgender issues in competitive 2026 campaigns In 2004, a coordinated wave of ballot initiatives against marriage equality swept the country, leaving a trail of political wreckage for our community and the entire nation. That same playbook is back for the 2026 midterm elections, and just like more than two decades ago, it's not about public safety or protecting children, it's about political power. ... Fast forward to 2026. Targeted questions in Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska, and Washington ask voters to roll back protections and enshrine discrimination against transgender people into state law. These states and the underlying efforts during this midterm cycle also serve as testing grounds for the 2028 Presidential election. Political operatives will stress-test field operations, build voter databases, and perfect fear-based messaging. They will seek out which disinformation about LGBTQ people can flip a swing district. If the strategy succeeds in November, it will scale nationwide in 2028. And if you can't find the evidence to justify your claims, you can always just manufacture it: 'Trans' Student Mailers Hit Texas Homes As Advocacy Group Denies Sending Them Fact Check: Video Of Transgender, LGBTQ+ People Blocked From Women's Restrooms Is NOT Real Footage How Russia Is Attacking the Midterms with a Mother Jones Deepfake Researchers tracked $80 million in political ads using AI—and Republicans were behind 83% of them ----------------------- How are we doing in on defense? Results appear to be mixed and support is dwindling among erstwhile allies, unfortunately. Many of our legislative victories are happening in the courts behind closed doors, while publicly many Dem politicians are abandoning the fight and ceding unnecessary ground. Judge allows US states' lawsuit challenging transgender care probes to move forward The 16 states, led by New York and Massachusetts, along with the District of Columbia sued in August to challenge a pair of memos issued to DOJ employees implementing Trump's January 2025 executive order that directed the Justice Department to prioritize such probes. Colorado and Michigan Become the Latest Blue States to Quietly End Medicaid Support for Trans Youth as 12 Others Pledge Continued Coverage Democrats in tight Midwest US races split on trans rights strategy Some Democrats are recalibrating their approach to transgender issues as they seek a path to power "I don't want to be on that side of it, but I'm being honest — I'd be lying to you if I said differently," Newsom told The Associated Press as he was campaigning recently in South Carolina. "I haven't been able to figure out how to make it fair from my perspective." ... Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, another likely Democratic presidential contender, has taken the opposite position. He has consistently criticized state-level bans and restrictions on transgender athletes, calling them "bullying" and a "setback for equality." Following the recent Supreme Court ruling that upheld state bans on transgender athletes, Pritzker, whose cousin is transgender, reaffirmed his position on social media. "There's a place for you in Illinois," he wrote. ----------------------- And Fourth: what's coming next? Win or lose in November, the legal and political battle over trans kids and schools will continue. But there is no chance that the attacks will stop there. Their next immediate target is healthcare for youth and adults, while the administration begins building a legal case to criminalize transness as a mental illness nationwide. Trump is threatening trans-affirming school districts. Student activists are fighting back. Final Rule Prohibits Federal Medicaid And CHIP Funds For Health Care For Transgender Youth On August 11, 2026, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) issued a final rule to prohibit the use of federal Medicaid and Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) funds for the treatment of gender dysphoria for those under age 18 and age 19, respectively. The rule is expected to disrupt access to care for low-income families and place new burdens on states and other stakeholders in states where care remains lawful. The rule, which was accompanied by a press release, will take effect on October 13, 2026. Trump's State Department Admits to Investigating All Passport Applicants For "Evidence of a Prior Sex Change" Department of Justice to fund studies of gender dysphoria and violent behavior "It looks to me that the administration's already decided what it wants the science to say," says Meghan Maury, policy director at the Transgender Law Center, a nonprofit organization. ... Researchers studying gender identity say they are puzzled by the funding notice, in part because moves by President Donald Trump's administration may make it harder to address NIJ's proposed research questions. The administration has cut federal funding for research on gender minorities and directed federal agencies to define people according to biological sex assigned at birth. Early in his second administration, Trump moved to strip self-described gender identity and sexual orientation from national surveys. "If you're instructed from the beginning that you can't actually recognize the humanity of a population or their self-determined language, then it automatically sets the research off on the wrong foot," says Elana Redfield, federal policy director at the University of California, Los Angeles's Williams Institute for sexual orientation and gender identity law and policy. Trump's FY2027 Budget: Continued Rollback of LGBTQ+ Protections Many additional pending legal challenges and federal crackdowns can be viewed here: Trump Anti-LGBTQ+ Executive Order Litigation Tracker
