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The Second Coming Orange Plague

7 October 2026 at 13:24
In other plague matters, Russia Says It Found No 'Emergency' in Plague Lab: "Ms. Shipilova's [previously explained and now] unexplained death prompted the Russian authorities to quarantine part of the hospital where she was taken, the institute's staff and other people whom she had come into contact with in her final days." News comes on the heels of a report of a second death at the same hospital.

Missive From Kyiv

2 October 2026 at 12:47
As I write this, an air raid siren is blaring outside my hotel window. I am in Kyiv, and my first response isn't to run to a shelter, it's to check my phone: two jet-powered Shahed drones, heading north of my location through the bright Ukrainian sky. I feel lucky. In past years, such daylight strikes were rare, but in 2026, Russia is determined to cut Ukraine's cities off from electricity, heating, and water supplies, driving the country into a humanitarian crisis. Putin has ordered the Russian military to abandon all rules of war.

Since I might be the only MeFite in Kyiv right now, I will add some personal context: none of these are hypotheticals. They all appear to be plans that have been in motion for some time, and it is only recently that media outlets begun picking up the thread of daily life on the ground. Russia's current favorite target isn't the Ukrainian military, it's civilians. Four days ago, I was in a park when Ukraine's National Academy of Sciences was hit. The explosion rang out over the city. Heads turned in horror. A woman walking her dog looked to be on the brink of tears. Nobody knew what was hit yet, just that Kyiv's defenses had failed, which meant that someone somewhere was probably dead (they were). Air raid sirens for Kyiv happen about once every two hours, well into the morning. I've lost count of how many times I've been woken up by one. And you never know how close your path will cross with a drone. Yesterday, I took an Uber over a bridge to visit the other side of Kyiv. It was a good day for Uber. Normally, Ukrainian defensive GPS spoofing also scrambles people's phone locations. For my previous ride, my phone put me in South America and gave an approximate arrival time of 19,000 minutes for a drive across the Atlantic. Last night, that same bridge was struck multiple times. While the structure remains intact, the city's traffic has slowed to a crawl as it tries to adjust. City officials aren't letting cars cross a bridge if there's a drone threat. Since the threats are nearly constant, commuter pileups are everywhere, which I can only guess was the point of the attack. I should also specify that there are two types of air raid sirens in Ukraine: one for drones, one for ballistic missiles/artillery attacks. Currently, Ukraine intercepts about 90% of the old, propeller-type Shaheds and the about half of the new jet-powered types. For the jet-powered Shaheds, Ukraine is placing its hopes in a a new unproven drone interceptor it can't produce enough of. For ballistic missiles, Ukraine has no answer. Despite the Trump Administration licensing production of Patriot interceptors to Ukraine, bringing that system online will take Ukraine years. In the meantime, Ukraine's domestic missile interceptor is still not ready for the coming winter onslaught. Regardless of the siren, everyone checks their phones to see what is coming where. Volunteers on Telegram have crowdsourced information to keep Ukrainian citizens informed about what's flying over their skies. Zelenskyy offered to stop attacking Russian oil facilities if Russia would spare Ukraine's civilian infrastructure. Putin, unsurprisingly, called such a deal absurd. What sits with me most, though, are the people I meet each day. Yesterday, I had a conversation with a woman whose dad and brother are both fighting on the front line. When I asked her if she was worried about them, her reply was succinct: "That's life. What can you do?"

Or, Why Diesel's price is outpacing Gasoline's

23 September 2026 at 17:43
How Volkswagen's Flagrant Fraud Screwed Over Russia's Refineries a Decade Later [YT ~17 min.]

William Spaniel is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh. His main YouTube channel, now just branded William Spaniel, was started to supplement his textbook/course Game Theory 101: Game Theory Made Easy*. It is currently focused on international affairs, covering topics such as Why the U.S. Is So Bad at Negotiating Peace Deals and Inevitability: The Critical Strategic Concept Both Wars Hinge On. A side channel, Lines on Maps Extra, recently ended a months-long streak of (combined with the main channel) daily videos that was initially prompted by the Iran war. * Game Theory 101 and the early iteration of Spaniel's channel were featured previously in 2012
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