Trump defends decision to waive some sanctions on Russia; Lithuania foils attack on Starlink site; Kyiv hits another oil terminal. What we know on day 1,699

Donald Trump has defended his decision to waive some sanctions on Russia, while once again accusing Volodymyr Zelenskyy of not wanting to end the war. “My decision on Russia is a very simple one. I am in the process of negotiating Peace in the war between Russia and Ukraine, and don’t want to do anything that will drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table,” the US president wrote on Truth Social. “Zelenskyy doesn’t care, and frankly, with all of the money that Europe is famously giving him … he doesn’t want to end this war, and probably never did,” he added. Trump’s remarks come after he signed an executive order on Friday putting on hold a sweeping new sanctions package targeting the Russian economy.

Earlier on Sunday, Zelenskyy had thanked the Trump administration for resuming intelligence sharing between the two countries, but maintained the US had intentionally throttled its Starlink satellite internet access to send a “message” to Kyiv, write Andrew Roth and Sam Jones.

Lithuania said Russia was likely behind an attempted arson attack on a company hosting communication hardware for Starlink satellites. Prime minister Mindaugas Sinkevicius made the claim on broadcaster LRT after authorities discovered flammable liquids at the company in question. Sinkevicius said the firm, whose location he did not mention, houses “nine satellite antennas to guarantee the Starlink connection, which of course supports and assists Ukraine”. He added: “It is obvious this is part of the hybrid war being waged by Russia, involving acts of sabotage.”

In September, a satellite station belonging to the network located in central Poland was set ablaze with Warsaw claiming sabotage. In Bulgaria, an investigation is under way amid claims that antennas linked to the Starlink satellite network were set on fire.

Shipping Russian diesel to the US market will take 15 to 20 days once contracts are signed, a senior Russian official said on Sunday, though a date for signing has yet to be announced. Trump announced the controversial agreement with Moscow last week, seen as a way to try to lower fuel prices for American consumers ahead of crucial midterm elections. “Negotiations are currently under way regarding the commercial terms – that is, on finalisation of the contracts,” Russian deputy prime minister for energy Alexander Novak said in an interview with state media. “Once the contracts are signed, the fuel will reach the markets – in this case, the US markets – within 15 to 20 days.”

Ukrainian strikes set an oil export terminal and a depot ablaze in St Petersburg on Sunday as Kyiv launched more than 1,000 drones at Russia in one of its largest aerial attacks of the war. One person was killed and five others were wounded in the attack, which sparked fires at the Petersburg oil terminal and the city’s Ruchi oil depot, officials said. A logistics centre belonging to Russian retailer Ozon and a datacentre operated by Russian tech company VK were also targeted, the companies confirmed. Russia’s defence ministry said Sunday that its forces had destroyed 1,015 Ukrainian drones over 15 Russian regions, the annexed Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea and the Black Sea.

A ⁠Russian air ⁠strike ⁠killed one person ​and injured ⁠two in Kyiv ‌overnight, mayor Vitali ‌Klitschko said on Telegram early on ‌Monday. A medical facility ​and a non-residential ⁠building were damaged ​in the ​attack, ​he ​said.

A suspected ⁠drone exploded over Lithuania after triggering an alert that forced residents in northern and central areas to seek shelter for an hour on Sunday, officials said. Ukraine’s foreign ​ministry said later it regretted the incident in Lithuania’s airspace, adding that it may have resulted from Russian electronic warfare diverting drones off course. The object flew ⁠into Lithuania’s airspace from Poland, Lithuanian defence minister Robertas Kaunas told reporters.

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© Photograph: Nathan Howard/Reuters

© Photograph: Nathan Howard/Reuters

© Photograph: Nathan Howard/Reuters

Two people killed and at least 17 injured as Russia and Ukraine continue to trade strikes on power infrastructure

Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday thanked the Trump administration for resuming intelligence sharing between the two countries, but maintained the US had intentionally throttled its Starlink satellite internet access so that Donald Trump could send a “message” in his ongoing feud with the Ukrainian president.

In an interview on NBC, Zelenskyy said the US had “unblocked” intelligence on impending Russian ballistic missile strikes, which have pounded the country’s energy infrastructure as winter draws in.

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© Photograph: Omar Havana/AP

© Photograph: Omar Havana/AP

© Photograph: Omar Havana/AP

In the three weeks since a health worker’s death in Siberia, officials have stonewalled the WHO – setting a worrying precedent for future pandemics

Is there a plague outbreak in Russia? If the answer were a clear yes, there shouldn’t be much reason to worry. With swift medical intervention, plague is treatable. But in the nearly three weeks since a worker at a Siberian plague research unit died of a mysterious respiratory illness, state officials have been consistently tight-lipped about what happened and whether there were any further cases.

It is this uncertainty that has the World Health Organization (WHO) and international community worried: partly because there is a – very small – risk of an outbreak, and partly because it is yet another warning that the international coordination we rely on to prevent pandemics is fraying along with the rest of international politics, and could easily fail to protect us in the future.

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© Photograph: Smirnov Vladimir/Anadolu/Getty Images

© Photograph: Smirnov Vladimir/Anadolu/Getty Images

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© Illustration: Nicola Jennings/The Guardian

© Illustration: Nicola Jennings/The Guardian

© Illustration: Nicola Jennings/The Guardian

Six attacks in 10 days by suspected Russian drones mark dramatic escalation in maritime conflict

The first the crew of the Bulgarian ferry Dioscuria knew of an attack on a cargo ship in their country’s exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea in the early hours of 6 October was a distant explosion 70 miles off the coastal town of Byala.

The Turkish-owned Alfa Watan, heading for the Romanian port of Sulina, had been struck by suspected Russian air and naval drones. Arriving on the scene, Dioscuria found an overturned lifeboat and lifejackets in the water. There was no sign, however, of Alfa Watan’s crew of 10.

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© Photograph: ARSVOM/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: ARSVOM/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: ARSVOM/AFP/Getty Images

Ukrainian president warns it will embolden Russian leader and intensify war as Moscow hits country’s power plants

• Power plant attacks reflect Russian blueprint to make Ukrainian cities unlivable

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described Donald Trump’s decision to roll back sanctions on Russia as a “reward” for Vladimir Putin and warned it will embolden the Russian leader and intensify the Kremlin’s war, as Moscow launched one of its worst strikes yet on Ukraine’s power plants in an attempt to black out the country’s cities before winter.

The Ukrainian president also said he expected the Trump administration to lift more sanctions against Russia in the future and called for Europe to establish its own negotiations with Moscow as the US has sought better ties and business deals with the Kremlin.

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© Photograph: Kateryna Klochko/AP

© Photograph: Kateryna Klochko/AP

© Photograph: Kateryna Klochko/AP

President signed the legislation championed by late senator Lindsey Graham last month but has waived the restrictions as they were due to come into effect

Donald Trump has put on hold a sweeping new sanctions package targeting the Russian economy, telling Congress the pause on the legislation passed by both chambers was in the national interest.

In an executive order on Friday, the US president said he was waiving many ⁠sanctions, restrictions and duties ⁠on Russia, in a move that comes as he has been publicly criticising ⁠Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, including suggesting that Ukraine needs a ​new leader.

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© Photograph: Eric Lee/Getty Images

© Photograph: Eric Lee/Getty Images

© Photograph: Eric Lee/Getty Images

Kremlin turning to punishment of Ukraine’s population in major cities as frontlines remain frozen

• Europe live – latest updates

As Russian missiles and drones have systematically slammed into power plants in Kyiv and Kharkiv this week, the rolling blackouts and water outages have increasingly resembled a supposed Russian blueprint to destroy life in major Ukrainian cities seen by the Guardian.

Even as Donald Trump unilaterally declared an “energy ceasefire” last week between Moscow and Kyiv, Russia continued with its methodical and devastating strikes on Ukraine’s power grid, in particular in Kyiv, in a strategy meant to punish Ukraine’s population and drive the country to capitulation.

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© Photograph: Gleb Garanich/Reuters

© Photograph: Gleb Garanich/Reuters

© Photograph: Gleb Garanich/Reuters

The Defector. Disgusted by Putin's war, Lt. Lev Stupnikov became one of the deadliest saboteurs in recent military history feeding troop locations and battle plans to the enemy before making a daring escape. This text and photo/video essay describes Stupnikov's role in enabling devastating Ukrainian attacks on Russian forces; his hair-raising escape and the price he paid. (gift link).

"Lt. Lev Stupnikov pulled his truck up to the edge of a field in eastern Ukraine on a frigid February morning, followed by a convoy of senior Russian army officials coming to observe a training exercise near the front line. For several consecutive days, Russian infantrymen, medics and officers had been drilling on the frozen mud, preparing for an offensive on the nearby city of Vuhledar. The only cover was a line of bare trees. Stupnikov approached a group of waiting soldiers and snapped a photo, keeping his cellphone close to his chest to avoid drawing attention. Then he quickly tapped out a message: "There must be between 120 and 150 men here." Stupnikov, a recent graduate from a prestigious military academy in St. Petersburg, Russia, had a secret. Earlier that month, he had begun covertly sharing information with Ukrainian intelligence. He had already given his contact the exact coordinates of the field. Now, with scores of Russian soldiers and their commanding officers gathered there, Stupnikov would have only moments to move out of the line of fire. "Walk away," the Ukrainian contact replied, then: "I'm waiting for a message that you've left." Having received no answer, the contact sent a note in all caps a minute later: "LEAVE."" --- Additional background: Russian defectors face fatal consequences.

Ukraine president also says Starlink speeds not fully restored and Kyiv working with France on other options

Several leaders offered Zelenskyy very friendly welcome or, in some cases, simply a big hug as he walked into the room before the formal part of the meeting got under way.

Speaking to Newsmax last night, Donald Trump repeated his views of the two leaders involved in the conflict.

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© Photograph: dts News Agency Germany Michael Kappeler Pool/Shutterstock

© Photograph: dts News Agency Germany Michael Kappeler Pool/Shutterstock

© Photograph: dts News Agency Germany Michael Kappeler Pool/Shutterstock

Russian drones are suspected of sinking a cargo ship and leaving chemical tankers ablaze near the Black Sea coasts of Bulgaria and Romania, respectively. The latest attacks mean that at least seven ships have been attacked in the exclusive economic zones of NATO member countries—and even within Romania's territorial waters if Russian involvement is confirmed in the case of the chemical tankers.

Such attacks have spurred requests for NATO to redeploy counter-drone systems to provide more protection. In a social media post on October 15, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that NATO had increased "counter-drone capabilities" along the alliance's eastern flank after meeting with the leaders of Bulgaria and Romania.

The latest attacks this week occurred within 24 hours between October 14 and October 15, when the two chemical tankers were set afire after Russian drones were detected in Romanian airspace, according to Deutsche Welle. Both ships were sitting at anchor near the mouth of the Sulina canal that connects the Black Sea to the Danube River, which has become a crucial shipping export route for Ukraine, Reuters reported.

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UK defence secretary says he has been ‘reassured directly’ counterpart Pete Hegseth that Starlink system has been restored as he seeks to cool tensions

Wes Streeting urged the US to stand by Ukraine on his visit to the American capital and sought to cool tensions between the two countries in the wake of the Starlink row that is threatening to set back Kyiv’s war effort.

The British defence secretary, giving a speech before a meeting with his US counterpart, Pete Hegseth, argued that supporting Ukraine was in the long-term interests of Washington, and a business opportunity.

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© Photograph: Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP

© Photograph: Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP

© Photograph: Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP

Moscow sends swarms of drones to attack infrastructure in central Ukraine as Zelenskyy says Kyiv will restart strikes on Russian oil refineries

• Europe live – latest updates

The White House’s unilateral effort to negotiate an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has collapsed as Moscow sent a record swarm of drones overnight to attack infrastructure in central Ukraine and Kyiv appeared to resume strikes on Russian oil refineries – despite warnings from Donald Trump.

Moscow accused Ukraine of launching a strike against a Russian oil refinery in the Ryazan region, its first since Trump abruptly declared an “energy ceasefire” that neither Russia nor Ukraine said they had agreed to.

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© Photograph: Reuters

© Photograph: Reuters

© Photograph: Reuters

A Russian researcher, who died from an unknown illness, worked at a remote anti-plague facility. Few foreigners have visited these labs, which dot the former Soviet states, and are shrouded in secrecy.

© Irkutsk Antiplague Research Institute, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Zelenskyy said he felt ‘betrayed’ by the US after Trump’s diesel deal with Russia and the Starlink restrictions

EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas acknowledged that the EU and the US had “definitely different approach to this war,” as she said Europeans believe “we should squeeze Russia, not Ukraine, to surrender and end this war.”

Responding to the US diesel deal with Russia, she said:

“The majority of Russia’s funding for the war comes from oil revenues. Clearly, Ukraine wants this war to stop, and that’s why … cutting off the funding for the war is the way to do it.

We see that we should squeeze … Russia, not Ukraine, to surrender to end this war.”

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© Photograph: ABACA/Shutterstock

© Photograph: ABACA/Shutterstock

© Photograph: ABACA/Shutterstock

Zelenskyy frames sudden shift as a betrayal by Trump, as spotlight turns on how Elon Musk’s SpaceX and the Pentagon control the crucial service

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused SpaceX of restricting access to its military-grade Starlink service, in effect hobbling Ukrainian drone strike missions and crucial air defences with a flick of the switch.

The development – and its dire consequences for Ukraine – has put the spotlight on Starlink -SpaceX’s commercial satellite internet service – and Starshield, a powerful military version developed by Elon Musk’s company for the Pentagon.

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© Photograph: Clodagh Kilcoyne/Reuters

© Photograph: Clodagh Kilcoyne/Reuters

© Photograph: Clodagh Kilcoyne/Reuters

Suspected Russian drone attacks sank a cargo ship and forced the evacuation of another vessel within two dozen miles of the coast of Bulgaria in the Black Sea on October 13. The latest attacks mean that five ships have been attacked in the exclusive economic zones of NATO member countries—spurring requests for NATO to redeploy counter-drone systems to provide more protection.

Although there is no hard proof that the drone attacks originated from Russia, one of the ships that came under attack was the Ukrainian-operated coastal freighter Chelsea 3, registered under the flag of Malta. Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev told the Russian ambassador in Sofia that “it makes no sense for Ukraine to destroy its own ships in the Black Sea, and the results of these strikes favor Russia’s interests,” according to The Associated Press.

All 15 members of the Ukrainian-owned Chelsea 3 were safely evacuated by Bulgarian rescue operations after the ship was reportedly struck by three aerial drones.

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Throttling of mobile internet system will affect Kyiv’s air defences more than its strikes on oil refineries. Now Zelenskyy must be hoping that US intel holds

In Ukraine the situation was already jittery enough. Donald Trump has been inventing ceasefires and buying Russian diesel to shore up his flagging popularity, while a sinister new wave of faster, jet-powered drones are breaking through Kyiv’s stretched air defences. Casualties are rising as the weather turns.

Overnight, Russia bombed three power plants that supply Kyiv, aiming to cut off heating and electricity to the city. According to the president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, for a second night in a row no warning came from Ukraine’s western allies of the incoming ballistic missiles – and so no air raid alert was issued.

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© Photograph: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP

© Photograph: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP

© Photograph: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP

President Zelenskyy’s allies must show the Russian president that American perfidy won’t alter the course of a war the Kremlin is losing

When Donald Trump pledged to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of re-entering the White House last year, no one with any depth of insight into the conflict believed him. But Mr Trump took his own words seriously enough to feel the lack of a ceasefire as an affront to his self-image as a master dealmaker. After a period when it seemed that Kyiv’s European allies had steered the US president away from pro‑Kremlin partisanship, he has reverted to the grotesque view that Ukrainian capitulation is a necessary precondition for peace.

These are the perilous circumstances in which President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met Andy Burnham on Wednesday in Downing Street. In recent days, the US president has called for a change of government in Ukraine. He claimed that a partial ceasefire had been agreed, while Russia escalated its bombardments. According to Mr Zelenskyy, the latest missile strikes have come without the intelligence warnings from the US that have, in the past, facilitated self-defence. There have been reports of Ukrainian soldiers losing access to the Starlink satellite network, controlled by Elon Musk, the US tech oligarch. This raises suspicion of coordinated pressure to tip the scales in Russia’s favour after many months when Mr Putin’s forces have failed to deliver significant advances and his country’s economy has been suffering from the effect of Ukrainian missile and drone counterstrikes.

Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here.

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© Photograph: Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP

© Photograph: Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP

© Photograph: Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP

Despite the expansion of Starlink and other communications satellite services, most of the world’s Internet traffic still travels through subsea cables crisscrossing the ocean floors. Those fiber-optic cables coexist with a network of oil and gas pipelines and submarine power cables—and all these crucial links connecting countries and continents now face growing sabotage risks as gray-zone warfare and open conflicts have become widespread.

The rising risks to the world’s invisible infrastructure beneath the waves are the main subject of a new book by Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council who leads the Threats to the Global Maritime Order Initiative. Her book, titled Undersea War, explores the modern rise in suspicious incidents in which ships dragging their anchors for unusually long periods have cut or damaged undersea cables and pipelines, from the Baltic Sea to the Pacific Ocean.

Braw acknowledges that about 60 percent of undersea cable damage is primarily due to human error during fishing and shipping activities, when weighted nets or anchors drag across the seabed. Natural hazards like storms and undersea landslides also account for a smaller proportion of such incidents. In total, between 150 and 200 cables are damaged each year and usually repaired quickly.

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Outage of terminals managed by Elon Musk’s SpaceX comes as Russia launches ballistic missiles at Ukraine without any advance warning from US

Ukraine’s military has suddenly had its access to Starlink satellite internet terminals restricted as the Trump administration has increased pressure on Ukraine to halt long-range strikes on Russia’s oil industry immediately.

The terminals, which are distributed and managed by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, are a key component of Ukraine’s military operations and the sudden restrictions on the terminals travelling at high speeds on Tuesday evening led to the failure of several combat missions, said an adviser on military technology to Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

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© Photograph: Reuters

© Photograph: Reuters

© Photograph: Reuters

Firms turning crude oil into the ‘workhorse’ fuel stand to gain most despite economic fallout from record prices

• Business live – latest updates

Days after Donald Trump announced a deal to import Russian diesel into the US in an effort to lower soaring pump prices, the world’s energy watchdog has warned that the global fuel shortage will drag into 2027.

Trump’s temporary sanctions reprieve was criticised for offering “too little, too late” to temper the sky high pump prices triggered by the shutdown of war-damaged refineries in the Middle East and Russia – once the world’s second-largest diesel exporter behind the US.

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© Photograph: Martin Meissner/AP

© Photograph: Martin Meissner/AP

© Photograph: Martin Meissner/AP

Xi's 'death watch' will become a global spectacle - "Xi will have to pick a relative unknown — all the current members of the Politburo Standing Committee are too old to step into his shoes — raising a host of troubling questions. Would a designated successor catapulted to the top be strong enough to command the loyalty of the powerful military? Could he hold the Party together?"

China now faces a period of prolonged political uncertainty. Carl Minzner, a US legal scholar and senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, predicted a "long twilight" with the economy sagging, social discontent rising, and the state using "grid management" — surveillance techniques used to maintain control over Xinjiang and other restive border areas. A succession struggle is unlikely to remain within China's borders, Tyler Jost, a professor at Brown University, and Daniel Mattingly of Yale University argued in Foreign Affairs last year, noting that Xi's prize goal is unification with Taiwan and "if he hears the succession clock ticking, he could become more willing to gamble on war." I'm betting that the end of the Xi era will look a lot less like Deng's, whose passing created hardly a ripple — by then, he'd handed over power and put in place a system to ensure smooth leadership transfers — and more like Mao's, a drama that involved a bloodless coup (the arrest of the so-called "Gang of Four" led by Mao's widow), intervention by the People's Liberation Army, and show trials. We had a foretaste of this kind of turmoil when Xi took power in 2012. A carefully constructed power transfer was upended by the arrest of Xi's main Politburo rival, and there were wild internet rumors of a military coup, tanks in the streets of the Chinese capital, and gunfire near the leadership compound. Xi has wrenched China back to an era of one-man rule. But having attained the pinnacle of power — next year he'll likely get a fourth five-year term in office — Xi now has to reckon with the consequences for his country. As Deng himself warned, "building a nation's fate on the reputation of one or two people is very unhealthy and very dangerous. --- *Notable:

• In 2025, during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Beijing, a hot mic picked up a conversation between Putin and Xi in which the two discussed organ transplants and the possibility of living forever. Musing on such procedures, Putin told Xi (through a translator) that with modern technology organs could be transplanted again and again so that "(you can) even achieve immortality." While a largely hypothetical conversation, it hinted that staving off old age and death — maybe for eternity — is top of mind among the world's most powerful autocrats.

As America Retreats, a New Era of Autocratic Surveillance Advances [ungated] - "A crackdown in Uganda shows how new technologies, Chinese influence and America's moral retreat are making the world safer for autocrats."[1]

Ugandans have discovered that, increasingly, there is nowhere to hide. Civic life here is defined by thickening webs of state surveillance built with foreign help. Chinese cameras and facial-recognition software monitor the streets; Russian radio frequency chips implanted in license plates have been tracking cars in real time; Israeli software plunders the private contents of phones. Technology has created an intrusive eye that never blinks — a stealthy weapon for dictators keen to stifle speech and thought. Welcome to our menacing new world, a place where authoritarians — established and aspiring alike — enjoy tolerance from the international community; wield cheaper, quieter and far more powerful surveillance tools at home; and reach across borders to help one another hang on to power.

viz. @EdwardGLuce: "Another US president would be pressuring Russia to stop slaughtering innocents. Trump is instead giving them the means to kill more."

• Iran Has a Secret Weapon in Its War With America: Help From China - "Trump wants to preserve relations with Xi, but Iranian customs data show Chinese entities have made thousands of shipments of components used in drones and missiles."
• The Houthis Are Building an Advanced Missile With Chinese Parts - "New report shows how Yemeni militant group is developing medium-range weapons independently of Iran."

cf. China's growth machines - "China is not the world's largest command economy. It is a continent-sized Silicon Valley."[2]

• @RuxandraTeslo: "Chinese industrial success is... because properly incentivised local governments compete ruthlessly with each other to secure investment."
• @bswud: "Whereas many of the West's most important city governments capture only a small amount of the spillovers from successful clusters, and thus have very little reason to foster them, in China, they get a huge amount of the upside and can re-invest it in further growth."
• @kyleichan: "It's useful to think of the Chinese Party-state as a giant corporation..."

also btw... Brazil's racket society - "As Bolsonarismo outlives Bolsonaro, what does Brazil reveal about where politics everywhere is heading?" (via|previously)

As Latin America's largest economy and its most populous democracy, Brazil has long served as a bellwether for the region, and increasingly for the world. Analysts of neoliberalism have used "Brazilianization" to describe a future of informal work, fortified elites, and hollowed-out states that they see arriving in the global North. The outcome of the runoff will help decide whether Brazil holds out against a regional turn toward Trump-aligned strongmen, a wave that has already swept Argentina, Ecuador, and, most recently, Colombia. The stakes are high. Lula's third term delivered growth, rising wages, and record-low unemployment, but it was hemmed in by a hostile Congress, and household debt and the cost of living kept climbing. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has intervened with unusual openness. It has imposed punitive tariffs and sanctioned a Supreme Court justice, and it has designated Brazil's two largest criminal factions as terrorist organizations. As Benjamin Fogel wrote in Jacobin before the vote, "something deeper and more paradigmatic is going on" than ordinary frustration with an incumbent. In this conversation, editor William Shoki speaks with Fogel, the Deputy Director of the Alameda Institute, a historian of Brazil and contributing editor at Jacobin (as well as an alumnus of Africa Is a Country), to unpack the first-round results, the coalition of interests behind Flávio, and the political economy that makes it cohere. They discuss why Brazilian capital has made its peace with predation, why anti-corruption politics so often breeds cynicism, how "security slop" became the right's signature policy, and what Brazil and South Africa reveal about everyone else's future.

Special forces officer Serhii Kuznetsov denies involvement in the 2022 blasts that left pipelines badly damaged

A Ukrainian soldier led a team of divers that, acting on the order of state authorities, laid explosives on the bed of the Baltic Sea to blow up the Nord Stream gas pipelines, a court has heard.

On the opening day of his trial in the German city of Hamburg, Serhii Kuznetsov, who was a special forces officer with the Ukrainian military at the time of the pipeline attacks in 2022, was accused by prosecutors of being an accomplice to war crimes by attacking civilian infrastructure, causing an explosion, damaging property and disrupting public services.

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© Photograph: Markus Scholz/Reuters

© Photograph: Markus Scholz/Reuters

© Photograph: Markus Scholz/Reuters

FSB security agency said reporter was arrested on island of Sakhalin, alleging he was collecting information about Russia’s defences

Russia has arrested a Japanese journalist on the far east island of Sakhalin and accused him of espionage, Moscow said on Tuesday.

Russia regards Japan as an “unfriendly” country because it has joined western sanctions over its war ⁠in Ukraine. Russia has arrested several citizens of “unfriendly” countries in recent years, accusing them of working for western intelligence services.

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© Photograph: artaxerxes_longhand/Alamy

© Photograph: artaxerxes_longhand/Alamy

© Photograph: artaxerxes_longhand/Alamy

Annual update from MI5 chief highlighted a complex cocktail that could have real-life consequences for Britain

MI5’s annual threat update covers so much ground it is easy to feel anxious. The terror threat has become more diverse, with far-right anti-migrant threats on the rise; while Iran has now firmly emerged alongside Russia as a country seeking to undertake violent and deadly plots in the UK.

“There is no law of physics dictating that rising state threats will be accompanied by diminishing terrorist threats,” MI5’s director general, Ken McCallum, said, although one of his core messages was that people and the country at large needed to focus on being more resilient. “In this new world, we should expect to be tested.”

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© Photograph: Toby Shepheard/Reuters

© Photograph: Toby Shepheard/Reuters

© Photograph: Toby Shepheard/Reuters

Ukrainian president’s comments on ‘particularly vile’ strikes come after US threatened to halt intelligence sharing

Ukraine received no early warning from its partners about a second night of Russian ballistic missile strikes on civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, including a critical power plant struck after dark, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Tuesday.

The Ukrainian president had earlier described an attack involving five missiles on Monday as “particularly vile”. He emphasised that receiving intelligence from Ukraine’s western allies “helps saves lives, and this is one of the most critical issues”.

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© Photograph: Sergey Dolzhenko/EPA

© Photograph: Sergey Dolzhenko/EPA

© Photograph: Sergey Dolzhenko/EPA

• Discover and buy more of Ben’s cartoons here

• Order your own print of this cartoon from the Guardian Print Shop

• Ben’s latest book, Drawn to the Chaos, is available to pre-order now

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© Illustration: Ben Jennings/The Guardian

© Illustration: Ben Jennings/The Guardian

© Illustration: Ben Jennings/The Guardian

Russian meddling probably didn’t affect the referendum result – but the Kremlin’s motives for wanting to undermine the EU still matter

Russian territorial aggression against Ukraine didn’t feature much in the Brexit referendum campaign. It made headlines briefly when Boris Johnson blamed Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea on the European Union.

According to the Vote Leave frontman, Vladimir Putin’s land grab was a consequence of Brussels making foreign policy “on the hoof” and having “pretensions to running a defence policy”.

Rafael Behr is a Guardian columnist

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© Composite: Guardian Design/Getty Images/Reuters/EPA

© Composite: Guardian Design/Getty Images/Reuters/EPA

© Composite: Guardian Design/Getty Images/Reuters/EPA

While some viral online graphs suggest less bot activity, Zelenskyy’s claims of improved social media discourse do not entirely pass muster

Over the weekend, Ukraine carried out at least three airstrikes on datacentres belonging to the Russian search engine company Yandex. Reports suggest at least two of these datacentres took significant damage, with Telegram footage appearing to show one on fire. Yandex acknowledged the strikes, and Russian media reported that several websites appeared affected by the downed datacentres.

On Monday, Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested the strikes had dampened Russia’s massive disinformation operation, saying: “It suddenly became a little easier to breathe on many social platforms. There was less hate, less division and fewer provocations.”

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© Photograph: Attila Husejnow/AP

© Photograph: Attila Husejnow/AP

© Photograph: Attila Husejnow/AP

Ukraine’s president says his country has halted strikes on Russian oil refineries for two days after Trump’s energy ceasefire announcement

On frozen Russian assets, Poland’s Sikorski says the use of frozen Russian assets is “a complicated issue,” but takes a very clear stance in response to any suggestion of releasing them back to Russia.

“We are working on it, but there is also some rumours that some people are expecting these assets to be released back to Russia.

I don’t think I’m speaking just for myself in saying: over our dead bodies.”

“Russia right now is not ready for ceasefire, but still, this only can encourage us to stay with Ukraine and to, strengthen, the pressure on Russia and always be ready for conversations, but and also especially for, for ceasefire negotiations.

But, until this doesn’t happen, we are with Ukraine. We are with the president the German government is is backing the Ukrainian government and the president, completely. He is the person to lead Ukraine, and we are with him.”

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© Photograph: Sergey Kozlov/EPA

© Photograph: Sergey Kozlov/EPA

© Photograph: Sergey Kozlov/EPA

Over the weekend, the World Health Organization released a disease outbreak report on the events surrounding the death of a Russian infectious disease researcher earlier this month, highlighting that Russia has yet to report a confirmed cause of death. With that "key uncertainty," the United Nations health agency said it remains impossible to assess the risk of the event or whether the public health measures Russia took were adequate to prevent spread of the unknown disease.

The WHO reported that, so far, it has seen no evidence of ongoing transmission of the mystery disease. "However, confidence in the assessment remains limited by the absence of a confirmed etiological diagnosis, and the remaining uncertainty regarding the source and mode of exposure," the agency wrote in its report.

The agency laid out the order of events as information trickled out from Russian authorities, noting that it only became aware of the death via media reports on October 2. The WHO subsequently made contact with Russian authorities and requested information on October 3, 6, 7, and 8.

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© Getty | FABRICE COFFRINI

Donald Trump’s deal to buy Russian diesel has been met with fury from Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said it was ‘a weak decision’ and would generate ‘billions’ in extra revenue for Putin’s war effort. The Ukrainian president has also rejected US calls for an ‘energy ceasefire’, which would require Kyiv to stop striking oil refineries, saying Moscow must first end its attacks on energy infrastructure. Lucy Hough speaks to the Guardian’s senior international correspondent, Luke Harding – watch on YouTube

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© Photograph: Image credits: AP Photo/Dan Bashakov AP Photo/Alex Brandon Gavriil Grigorov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

© Photograph: Image credits: AP Photo/Dan Bashakov AP Photo/Alex Brandon Gavriil Grigorov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

© Photograph: Image credits: AP Photo/Dan Bashakov AP Photo/Alex Brandon Gavriil Grigorov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

Ukrainian leader says he was surprised by Trump’s ‘energy ceasefire’ announcement, posted as Russian drones hit Kyiv

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has vowed to respond to Russia’s continuing attacks on the Ukrainian power grid as European leaders rally around Kyiv amid a feud with Donald Trump over Ukraine’s strikes on oil refineries.

Speaking to a gathering of European security officials in Warsaw on Monday, the Ukrainian president said Kyiv would retaliate if strikes on its power grid continued: “If Russia does not agree to an energy ceasefire this winter, we will respond.”

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© Photograph: Andrii Marienko/AP

© Photograph: Andrii Marienko/AP

© Photograph: Andrii Marienko/AP

When Russia began attacking Ukrainian data centers and telecommunication infrastructure, it apparently failed to prepare for possible retaliation. Now Russia’s digital services are facing widespread outages after Ukrainian drone strikes knocked out three of the largest data centers owned by Russian tech giant Yandex within several days.

Pro-Kremlin bloggers are warning that Russia’s centralized digital economy could collapse because the country is not prepared for the “data center war” it started, according to posts translated by the pseudonymous independent researcher ChrisO_wiki. The Russian commentators also suggested that Ukraine’s decentralized digital services could prove more resilient than Russia’s system if the countries continue trading such blows.

Russia initially launched a drone strike campaign targeting Ukrainian data centers and mobile phone networks in late September. The attacks temporarily disrupted Internet and cell phone service for up to 100,000 households in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and came as part of a broader long-range strike campaign that has involved Russian missiles and jet-powered drones hitting Ukraine’s power grid infrastructure, transportation hubs, and even residential apartment building blocks.

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Russia’s silence over the death of a lab worker underlines that pandemic preparedness amounts to nothing if information on threats is withheld

In pandemic preparedness work, scientists like to focus on the technical challenges: identifying pathogens, diagnosing infections, understanding their effects and developing vaccines and treatments. Each step promises progress through human innovation, investment and planning. The World Health Organization (WHO), for example, brings experts together to identify and prioritise emerging disease threats and collect the evidence needed to prepare for them. But preparedness depends on more than scientific innovation.

As the past week has shown, politics is the elephant in the room in all of this. No one could have predicted we would be talking about pneumonic plague, and that the death of a single lab worker in Russia would cause global headlines. It might feel like an overreaction: the WHO deals with thousands of potential disease signals worldwide every month. But the circumstances of this case are unusual given the lack of transparency from Russian authorities on what happened – and ongoing concern about biological weapons research.

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© Photograph: The Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute of Siberia and Far East/AP

© Photograph: The Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute of Siberia and Far East/AP

© Photograph: The Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute of Siberia and Far East/AP

Zelenskyy had proposed a 60-day total ceasefire to allow Ukraine to hold presidential elections

• Trump announces partial ceasefire in Ukraine war as Zelenskyy says deal is ‘news to me’

Addressing the conference virtually, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy commented on Trump’s “sudden but very important” energy ceasefire declaration over the weekend.

He said it is clear that Putin “does not read Truth social”, the site that the US president posted his ceasefire declaration on.

Russia wants to ruin the existing security architecture in Europe to make sure that Russian domination comes back to where it was before 1989. We have no doubt about it.

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© Photograph: Thomas Peter/Reuters

© Photograph: Thomas Peter/Reuters

© Photograph: Thomas Peter/Reuters

The prime minister tells MPs the next summit with the EU will be held on 20 November

Burnham to urge MPs to embrace closer ties with EU

Zia Yusuf, Reform UK’s home affairs spokesperson, is speaking now. He started his speech with an account of a 73-year-old woman dying in North Wales after having to wait 23 hours for an ambulance, and he sought to link this to immigration.

He said:

The Royal College of Emergency Medicine estimates that 15,000 people across Britain died last year due to excess wait times for emergency treatment. That’s 300 people a week, 300 lives destroyed, 300 families devastated.

And that number has increased tenfold over the last decade. This is a moral outrage, and it is a direct result of decisions made by Tory and Labour governments.

I don’t think that’s because he wants to have a fight over the European Union. I think that’s because he knows what we’re talking about today impacts hard in what is known as the red wall.

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© Photograph: Tobias Schwarz/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Tobias Schwarz/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Tobias Schwarz/AFP/Getty Images

Accountancy firm Deloitte Cyprus among those that appear to have backdated records outlining the Russian billionaire’s assets

Aides of Roman Abramovich – including staff at the global accountancy firm Deloitte – falsified paperwork mapping the oligarch’s sprawling offshore business empire, records suggest, helping his businesses dodge tax and disguise assets.

New analysis of leaked corporate records uncovers what appears to have been a long-running and carefully orchestrated strategy of backdating documents.

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© Photograph: Alexander Hassenstein/UEFA/Getty Images

© Photograph: Alexander Hassenstein/UEFA/Getty Images

© Photograph: Alexander Hassenstein/UEFA/Getty Images

Russia’s latest weapons have left Ukraine’s civilian air defence teams frantically trying to adapt as winter approaches

Several hours into Kyiv’s nightly curfew, much of the capital lay dark and quiet. High above, on the roof of a grey tower block on the city’s outskirts, a small group of men in uniform stood beside two heavy machine guns, scanning the horizon. Soon, a drone appeared.

Once, its unmistakable buzz would have sent the men scrambling towards their weapons. Now, the air defence unit will check speed and altitude on a monitor before taking a decision.

The Mriya air defence crew on a rooftop in Kyiv.

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© Photograph: Julia Kochetova

© Photograph: Julia Kochetova

© Photograph: Julia Kochetova

Ukrainian president earlier rejected US call for Kyiv to stop bombing oil refineries, saying Moscow must first end attacks on energy infrastructure

Donald Trump has announced an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, apparently without consulting Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said the deal to stop long-range attacks was “news to me”.

In a social media post, the US president claimed the two sides had reached an agreement. “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” he wrote on Truth Social.

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© Photograph: Volodymyr Pavlov/Reuters

© Photograph: Volodymyr Pavlov/Reuters

© Photograph: Volodymyr Pavlov/Reuters

A fuel deal with Vladimir Putin, and sanctions against the legal institution, ram home the president’s belief that might is right

On Friday, Donald Trump drove home his belief that might is right and the rule of law is an obstacle rather than an essential foundation stone of international order. First came the escalated assault on the international criminal court (ICC), sanctioning the body itself. Then he announced a deal with Russia to buy diesel.

The US has long chafed at the notion of being bound by the rule of law that it espoused publicly. That hypocrisy now appears as a lesser vice. The president has declared that “my own morality” is all that constrains him. His brazen flouting of the law, embrace of dictators and rhetorical attacks all undermine global standards.

Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here.

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© Photograph: Daryna Naumova/EPA

© Photograph: Daryna Naumova/EPA

© Photograph: Daryna Naumova/EPA

PM says he asked question upon entering No 10 but does not reveal who gave him ‘clear answer’ Russia meddled

Andy Burnham has said it is clear Russia interfered in the Brexit referendum, after seeking answers on the Kremlin’s involvement in the 2016 vote when he entered Downing Street.

Burnham said he had asked whether Moscow had attempted to influence the referendum and received a confirmation that it had.

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© Photograph: Christopher Furlong/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Christopher Furlong/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Christopher Furlong/AFP/Getty Images

Ukraine’s president reportedly says Kyiv would accept a deal if Moscow does after US president posts announcement with no detail on social media

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A senior Ukrainian official has also reportedly told the FT that Ukraine had no information about Trump’s proclaimed ceasefire deal.

The official was quoted as saying: “Just now our repair teams are restoring electricity and water supplies in Kyiv” following Russian strikes. “Nobody has heard [of the ceasefire].”

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© Photograph: Vladyslav Musiienko/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Vladyslav Musiienko/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Vladyslav Musiienko/AFP/Getty Images

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© Illustration: Pete Songi/The Guardian

© Illustration: Pete Songi/The Guardian

© Illustration: Pete Songi/The Guardian

US president suggests Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has not done enough to end war

Donald Trump has said Ukraine needs “a new leader”, a day after making a deal with Vladimir Putin to buy large quantities of Russian diesel.

The US president suggested Volodymyr Zelenskyy has not done enough to end the war with Russia and blamed him for high diesel prices in the US.

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© Photograph: Reuters

© Photograph: Reuters

© Photograph: Reuters

Moscow’s imperialist strongman believes decadent European democracies can be cowed. Our job is to prove him wrong

Vladimir Putin is escalating both his full-scale war against Ukraine and his shadow war against the rest of Europe. His main purpose in the shadow one is to break European support for Ukraine so he can subjugate that country, something he regards as existential for Russia’s future and his own. While we in the rest of Europe must prepare as best we can to defend ourselves against every kind of hybrid attack, the central thrust of our response should be to redouble our support for Ukraine. Ukraine is his main target. It’s there, and only there, not in a contest of a thousand hybrid pinpricks, that Putin’s Russia can in a meaningful sense be defeated and deterred.

In a powerful new book, Warum Russland nicht aufhören wird (Why Russia Won’t Stop), the German historian Martin Schulze Wessel shows how Putin’s policy fits into a much older Russian tradition of territorial expansionism and striving for hegemony, combined with a religiously infused imperial ideology. He reminds us that in 2016 Putin said “Russia’s frontier ends nowhere” and in 2025, “wherever the boot of a Russian soldier steps, that is ours”. West Europeans, fondly imagining that we have consigned such brute territorial imperialism to the dustbin of history, tend to think there must be some other explanation (eg something we did “wrong”, like the eastward expansion of Nato). Finns, Estonians and Poles know better. Despite Russia’s weaknesses, the author concludes, it is “the most dangerous country in the world”. Some in Asia might question that large claim, but certainly Russia is the most dangerous country for Europe.

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© Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

As archaeologists find treasure trove along new floodplain, conservationists say another Nova Kakhovka would be ecocide

On a warm September day, a group of underwater archaeologists and researchers were boiling water for tea on their campfire on the banks of the Dnipro River, tents pitched on the sandy shoreline. They were three weeks into an archaeological expedition of the waters around Khortytsia – a rocky island 12.5km long and 2.5km wide that lies just downstream of the city of Zaporizhzhia, in south-eastern Ukraine.

High above the island, a Shahed drone whined on its way. A Ukrainian interceptor, and small-arms fire from the ground, tried, unsuccessfully, to bring it down. The archaeologists ignored it. This is life as normal, 28 miles (45km) from the combat zone in Russia’s war on Ukraine.

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© Photograph: Julia Kochetova/The Guardian

© Photograph: Julia Kochetova/The Guardian

© Photograph: Julia Kochetova/The Guardian

Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out two of five data centers belonging to the Russian tech giant Yandex. The damage has left Yandex, known as “Russia’s Google” because it operates the country’s most popular search engine, struggling to maintain its AI chatbot and other online services.

The Ukrainian drones struck Yandex data centers in the Sasovo and Kaluga regions of Russia on October 8 and October 9, according to Reuters. Those actions came as a direct response to a Russian drone strike campaign targeting Ukraine’s data centers, which has disrupted mobile phone and Internet services for thousands of Ukrainians since late September.

“We continue to respond to Russia’s attacks on Ukraine, and we’re doing so with high precision,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a post on X. “Another data center was hit as well—our symmetrical response.”

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Dozens of CIA officers have been afflicted by debilitating symptoms over the past decade. Are they the result of ‘mass hysteria’? Or are they from attacks with an energy weapon and, if so, who is responsible? And has there been a cover-up?

Shortly after 1am one night in April 2019, a CIA officer on a work trip to London was jolted awake in his hotel room by the most intense head pain he had ever experienced. His body was soaked with sweat and he felt like his eyes were spinning in their sockets. He manoeuvred his way out of bed, hoping to make it to the bathroom to vomit, but found his sense of balance had deserted him. Eventually, he fell back into a fitful, shallow sleep.

The next day, arriving at the work meeting he had travelled for, the officer found he could not remember the names of colleagues in the room, people he knew well. As the meeting got under way, he could barely follow the discussion. Initially, he chalked it up to a terrible – if rather odd – case of food poisoning. But over subsequent weeks, worrying symptoms persisted: brain fog, loss of balance and increasingly harsh tinnitus.

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© Composite: Alex Mellon for the Guardian : Getty Images

© Composite: Alex Mellon for the Guardian : Getty Images

© Composite: Alex Mellon for the Guardian : Getty Images