Xi's 'death watch' will become a global spectacle - "Xi will have to pick a relative unknown — all the current members of the Politburo Standing Committee are too old to step into his shoes — raising a host of troubling questions. Would a designated successor catapulted to the top be strong enough to command the loyalty of the powerful military? Could he hold the Party together?"

China now faces a period of prolonged political uncertainty. Carl Minzner, a US legal scholar and senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, predicted a "long twilight" with the economy sagging, social discontent rising, and the state using "grid management" — surveillance techniques used to maintain control over Xinjiang and other restive border areas. A succession struggle is unlikely to remain within China's borders, Tyler Jost, a professor at Brown University, and Daniel Mattingly of Yale University argued in Foreign Affairs last year, noting that Xi's prize goal is unification with Taiwan and "if he hears the succession clock ticking, he could become more willing to gamble on war." I'm betting that the end of the Xi era will look a lot less like Deng's, whose passing created hardly a ripple — by then, he'd handed over power and put in place a system to ensure smooth leadership transfers — and more like Mao's, a drama that involved a bloodless coup (the arrest of the so-called "Gang of Four" led by Mao's widow), intervention by the People's Liberation Army, and show trials. We had a foretaste of this kind of turmoil when Xi took power in 2012. A carefully constructed power transfer was upended by the arrest of Xi's main Politburo rival, and there were wild internet rumors of a military coup, tanks in the streets of the Chinese capital, and gunfire near the leadership compound. Xi has wrenched China back to an era of one-man rule. But having attained the pinnacle of power — next year he'll likely get a fourth five-year term in office — Xi now has to reckon with the consequences for his country. As Deng himself warned, "building a nation's fate on the reputation of one or two people is very unhealthy and very dangerous. --- *Notable:

• In 2025, during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Beijing, a hot mic picked up a conversation between Putin and Xi in which the two discussed organ transplants and the possibility of living forever. Musing on such procedures, Putin told Xi (through a translator) that with modern technology organs could be transplanted again and again so that "(you can) even achieve immortality." While a largely hypothetical conversation, it hinted that staving off old age and death — maybe for eternity — is top of mind among the world's most powerful autocrats.

As America Retreats, a New Era of Autocratic Surveillance Advances [ungated] - "A crackdown in Uganda shows how new technologies, Chinese influence and America's moral retreat are making the world safer for autocrats."[1]

Ugandans have discovered that, increasingly, there is nowhere to hide. Civic life here is defined by thickening webs of state surveillance built with foreign help. Chinese cameras and facial-recognition software monitor the streets; Russian radio frequency chips implanted in license plates have been tracking cars in real time; Israeli software plunders the private contents of phones. Technology has created an intrusive eye that never blinks — a stealthy weapon for dictators keen to stifle speech and thought. Welcome to our menacing new world, a place where authoritarians — established and aspiring alike — enjoy tolerance from the international community; wield cheaper, quieter and far more powerful surveillance tools at home; and reach across borders to help one another hang on to power.

viz. @EdwardGLuce: "Another US president would be pressuring Russia to stop slaughtering innocents. Trump is instead giving them the means to kill more."

• Iran Has a Secret Weapon in Its War With America: Help From China - "Trump wants to preserve relations with Xi, but Iranian customs data show Chinese entities have made thousands of shipments of components used in drones and missiles."
• The Houthis Are Building an Advanced Missile With Chinese Parts - "New report shows how Yemeni militant group is developing medium-range weapons independently of Iran."

cf. China's growth machines - "China is not the world's largest command economy. It is a continent-sized Silicon Valley."[2]

• @RuxandraTeslo: "Chinese industrial success is... because properly incentivised local governments compete ruthlessly with each other to secure investment."
• @bswud: "Whereas many of the West's most important city governments capture only a small amount of the spillovers from successful clusters, and thus have very little reason to foster them, in China, they get a huge amount of the upside and can re-invest it in further growth."
• @kyleichan: "It's useful to think of the Chinese Party-state as a giant corporation..."

also btw... Brazil's racket society - "As Bolsonarismo outlives Bolsonaro, what does Brazil reveal about where politics everywhere is heading?" (via|previously)

As Latin America's largest economy and its most populous democracy, Brazil has long served as a bellwether for the region, and increasingly for the world. Analysts of neoliberalism have used "Brazilianization" to describe a future of informal work, fortified elites, and hollowed-out states that they see arriving in the global North. The outcome of the runoff will help decide whether Brazil holds out against a regional turn toward Trump-aligned strongmen, a wave that has already swept Argentina, Ecuador, and, most recently, Colombia. The stakes are high. Lula's third term delivered growth, rising wages, and record-low unemployment, but it was hemmed in by a hostile Congress, and household debt and the cost of living kept climbing. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has intervened with unusual openness. It has imposed punitive tariffs and sanctioned a Supreme Court justice, and it has designated Brazil's two largest criminal factions as terrorist organizations. As Benjamin Fogel wrote in Jacobin before the vote, "something deeper and more paradigmatic is going on" than ordinary frustration with an incumbent. In this conversation, editor William Shoki speaks with Fogel, the Deputy Director of the Alameda Institute, a historian of Brazil and contributing editor at Jacobin (as well as an alumnus of Africa Is a Country), to unpack the first-round results, the coalition of interests behind Flávio, and the political economy that makes it cohere. They discuss why Brazilian capital has made its peace with predation, why anti-corruption politics so often breeds cynicism, how "security slop" became the right's signature policy, and what Brazil and South Africa reveal about everyone else's future.

a vast right-wing conspiracy, if you will...
The Future of the Far Right [ungated] - "We misread the far right by taking its discourse at face value. It is an error to believe Trump, Bolsonaro et al when they speak of taking a step back from 'globalism', of returning to a Fordist dream of industrial jobs, turning back the clock on the sexual revolution and re-sacralising the nuclear family and traditional gender roles. These ideas have an obvious psychological appeal to certain voters, but they are not borne out by the actions of the contemporary far right. On the contrary, it is a movement that feeds off the social disintegration produced by decades of neoliberalism, and accelerates that process towards a certain horizon." (via)

In my book, I characterise this horizon as a "privately managed, differentially distributed state of nature": a situation in which the state relinquishes ever more responsibility for mediating social conflict and instead enshrines the rule of brute force. Let me provide one revealing example. In 2019, illegal loggers in the Amazonian state of Rondônia set fire to a fuel truck serving a federal enforcement operation, which then had to be called off; two weeks later the environment minister travelled to the town to meet the loggers and hear their demands. The explicit message was: 'I'm on your side. It's okay if you burn government property, kill the Indigenous people whose land you are logging and collaborate with the drug traffickers who use the same routes – all of that is private enterprise, and we don't interfere with private enterprise.' The same idea informs Trump's relationship with Big Tech. This can take the form of what I have called "overseer capitalism". In plantation economies like Brazil and the American South, policing was a public function that grew out of a private one. The overseer hired to discipline the plantation workforce became, after abolition, the police officer keeping the freed men and women in place. Today that public function is turning private once again. Wagner and Blackwater, the narcos in Mexico, the militias in Rio – such non-state actors increasingly exercise the monopoly of force over the areas they control. Overseer capitalism entails the alliance between capital and these free agents of repression, who join the coalition not merely as guns for hire but as equal political partners. Such a convergence was presaged in the first Bolsonaro government and could easily establish itself under Flávio. It's clear why the powerful would be attracted to such a model that promises them untrammelled enjoyment of power. But why do the weakest also vote for it? Because of the psychological compensations included in the package. The promise is: 'even if you remain hyper-exploited at your job, even if your life expectations are daily shrinking, we will ensure that there is at least one sphere of life in which your power runs free. At home, you can take it out on your wife or your kids, no one will interfere; and no one can tell you not to make jokes about Black people or gay people.'

Crisis unresolved - "One way to understand the class alliance that has coalesced around this project is to think of it as the meeting of those who have given up waiting for the promises of modernization to be realized, and those who have stopped pretending that the promises they made were real."

On one side, there are those juggling several jobs, working informally or in the gig economy, dealing with the economic downturn of the post-2015 period, strained public services and unaccountable institutions. To these, Bolsonarismo offers, if not clear material advantages, the promise that, if they cannot count on the state, the state will at least get off their backs, leaving them free to manage their own risks as they see fit. Bolsonarismo also offers the unhindered exercise of whatever little power they have, in however small a sphere that may be — even if it is just by telling jokes about minorities. To Brazilian elites, on the other hand, and particularly those in agribusiness and extractive industries, Bolsonaro offers the same, but writ large: predatory capitalism outside any control. Between these two groups, there is a middle class that is bitter from losing some of its markers of social distinction vis-a-vis the ascendant poor; from this milieu come some of the most ardent Bolsonaristas and many of the political entrepreneurs that have made a career out of far-right agitation.

Anatomy of Disintegration: What Brazil Reveals About the Global Far Right by Rodrigo Nunes - "Through the lens of Bolsonarismo, Rodrigo Nunes zeros in on the challenge that the enduring success of the far right forces the left to face, in Brazil and beyond: How do we reckon with the appeal of political actors who promise radical positive change while reassuring their own supporters that they, and only they, won't need to change their ways? To put it in the words of the author, how do bold leftists convince a majority of people that, instead of hating particular categories of players, they should hate the game, when their opponents thrive on telling voters that hating other players can spare them the hazardous work of changing the game? To start answering that question seriously and intransigently, Anatomy of Disintegration is a must read." cf. Frances Fukuyama on 'patrimonial capitalism' - "Megalothymia. So that is the desire to be recognized as greater than other people. I think that this is obviously a threat in a democracy because a liberal democracy is based on the premise that all people, all citizens are essentially equal. But that's not enough for a certain group, a certain subset of human beings. They want to dominate. They want to be more than others. It takes often times a very negative form of political domination. So you want to be a dictator or an autocrat." (The return of "patrimonial capitalism")

EK: Trump appears a couple of times in End of History and the Last Man. But when he emerges into politics, he emerges as something other than simply an icon of capitalist success. He emerges as somebody bringing a renewed nationalism, a renewed belief in borders, a belief in maybe more traditional hierarchies in America. And over time he emerges in your telling as somebody who is either proposing or modeling a different form of government, a different regime, not just a different leader. You've described him as repatrimonializing the government. What does that mean? FF: So let's begin with another bit of psychology. It's not natural to favor a well-qualified stranger over your relatives or your friends. It's a very natural human desire to want to reward friends and family. So most states in human history were patrimonial, meaning that they basically were run for the benefit of the rulers. It was the ruler's household, the friends and family of the ruler that were given privileges and were able to enrich themselves. And the reason you went into politics was to enrich yourselves. And I think that every society that has managed to create modern state institutions that are impersonal has had this constant backsliding temptation because the rulers themselves would like their friends and family to be favored... We're doing that right now. You know, instead of professional diplomats handling our Middle East policy, you get Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, two friends and family of Donald Trump, and you're paying the price for it because a modern state really does need meritocratic, impersonal people running the state apparatus. EK: Are you surprised how easy it was for Trump to begin to build or rebuild that structure in a system that seemed just choked with rules and procedures to keep that from happening? FF: Yeah, I'm totally astounded that the American people don't seem to really care that much. I mean maybe in the fullness of time there'll be some accountability, but yeah, I would not have expected that the degree of corruption that exists in the current administration would have been tolerable to mainstream Republicans.

viz. "This is the apparatus of mass enslavement - here, or abroad. Deportations first, then work camps when the nonprofit organizations that fight for immigrant rights are weakened enough and the press is captured enough and the population is surveilled enough that it won't lead to mass protest in the streets."

It is the future. The balance of wealth and power in America is at it's all time worst. An invincible man named Ike appears. CARNAGEMAN: IKE is a stylish and violent sixty-second animated short about why it's important not to be rushed into signing anything. By DOMROM.

Behind the scenes. A teaser for the full project, showcasing a few characters and suggesting the direction it might take. An update from the creator on how the short was made, and the happy reasons that the full thing is on hold. Other highlights from their channel: LUCKYBOY - the saga of a young sock in the big city. A fun medley of animation styles. Starbrry City - lo-fi synthwave animation. Chill and atmospheric.

The world reconsiders America - "America is shedding its status as the default choice for foreign governments to park money, buy weapons and send students... Hungary and Poland were the only two of 10 countries polled where majorities still view the U.S. as a reliable partner. Majorities in all 10, including two with right-wing populist leaders, say they lack confidence in Trump to do the right thing in world affairs."

Poll shows rising trust in global institutions, less comfort with US as global leader - "The poll showed that the people surveyed were not comfortable with the United ​States or China as a global leader, and 61% supported countries working together without the participation of either of the world's two largest economies."

Canada received the highest ​level of comfort for taking a leading role in world affairs at 60%, followed by Japan (58%) and Australia (55%). The European Union and Britain were closely behind, with 55% and 54%, while ‌the United ⁠Nations stood at 52%. By contrast, just 39% were comfortable with the United States taking a leading role and 37% with China. Russia was viewed even more negatively, with just 26% comfortable.

• 'Hostile act': Trump threatens EU with tariffs over Canada associate-membership proposal - "Canada is already the only non-European country in the EU's SAFE instrument — an initiative that provides Canadian firms with preferential access to defense procurement — and has a free-trade agreement with the bloc, eliminating tariffs on roughly 99% of goods, though that deal still requires ratification by 10 EU states." (Canada to seek EU Associate Membership)
• EU single market needs 'fifth freedom' to reverse loss of economic dynamism - "Encompassing research, knowledge and talent, as well as an 'approve once, sell everywhere' regime, to help close the widening gap with US and Chinese innovation led growth... The proposed 'fifth freedom' is a nod to the EU single market's foundations' 'four freedoms': movement of goods, services, people and capital."

How Trump's war on EVs derailed America's auto-factory revival - "A wave of manufacturing investment promised to revive struggling heartland towns and build a U.S. supply chain for electric vehicles and batteries. But policy changes since Trump's return to office have upended the boom, costing thousands of jobs." Trump Has Made More Trades Than All of Congress Combined - "Most Americans support a ban on lawmaker stock trading. Trump is in favor of a prohibition that doesn't apply to him." Trump considered dangerous, corrupt by majority in new poll - "A slight majority of registered voters describe President Trump as corrupt and dangerous, a recent poll found, while just 14% say he isn't divisive."

"Corrupt" (53%) and "dangerous" (51%) led the list of descriptors voters applied to Trump in the Sept. 11-14 The Economist-YouGov poll of 1,461 U.S. registered voters.

• Those words were followed by "out-of-touch" (47%), "cruel" (46%) and "bold" (45%).
• Just 18% said they'd use the word "steady" to describe the president.

Democrats are testing an anti-corruption midterm message as Americans' perceptions of government corruption hit a 20-year high, per Gallup's trend, and polls show Americans believe the president has inappropriately profited from cryptocurrency while in office.

• The results broke sharply by party — 91% of Democrats and 62% of independents said Trump was corrupt, compared with 10% of Republicans.
• Republicans weren't universally positive: Less than half (49%) said they'd use the word "honest" to describe the president. Just 10% said it didn't describe him, while 41% had no opinion.
• Similarly, 38% of Republicans said he was steady, while 53% said they had no opinion.

also btw...

• Baal out: Top diplomat's worry about pagan god elicits eye rolls - "The second-most powerful man at the State Department put the brakes on a U.S. international exhibit featuring a bull statue because he worried it might look like Baal, a pagan god some associate with Satanic child sacrifice."
• FBI's Patel defends change in 'bestiality' hiring practice as lawmakers seek answers - "Why would you even get ​into bestiality?"

• Texas nominees' racist, vulgar remarks receive mixed GOP reaction - "Are other Republican elected officials going to condemn the intolerance and racism, or look the other way while it becomes normalized."
• Texas Republican's post on Asian Americans at UT Austin sparks accusations of racism - "Hate is one of the easiest means of organizing."

• US billionaires line up to bankroll Republicans' election push - "Ultra-wealthy overwhelmingly back Donald Trump's party over Democrats as money floods into midterms race."
• U.S. Senate Race in Michigan: Full Debate - "While Rogers declined the invite for the debate, El-Sayed showed up."

What's the first thing you do when you get into office should you become a senator? El-Sayed: Work to get money out of politics to end Citizens United. Corporations are not people. Their money is not speech. They should not be able to buy politicians. We need to end that. And then it's working to pass the PRO Act to make sure that we can organize unions in every sector of American life. And finally getting Medicare for All done. So we free people from medical risk.

• Russian businessman financed Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding celebrations - "Umar Kremlev paid for two nights of celebration after the wedding, Donald Trump Jr. and his wife confirm."
• What we know about the Putin ally who allegedly funded Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding - "According to a ProPublica investigation, Umar Kremlev's deep ties to Vladimir Putin allegedly created a personal financial link between President Trump's oldest child and prominent Russians while the U.S. attempts to broker peace with Ukraine."

• Somaliland's president puts everything on the table for Trump - "The breakaway territory is offering Washington access to its port, minerals and potentially military facilities in exchange for recognition."

• The public wants a say in AI development - "Democratic and Republican voters agree that the American public should decide the future of AI development, not billionaires in Silicon Valley, according to new polling shared first with Semafor." (Behind the curtain: It's not too late)
• Scoop: Trump pollster gives GOP a data center survival guide - "This converts the candidate from a defender of technology companies into the person imposing rules on them."
• First, "validate" voters' concerns about higher utility bills, the power grid and water use.
• Second, "draw the line" by vowing not to support projects that force families to subsidize them or allow tech companies to harm surrounding communities.
• Finally, argue that projects should move forward only if companies provide their own power, protect ratepayers and safeguard local water.

• US admission of orbital weapons seen as landmark moment in race with China, Russia - "The U.S. acknowledgment this week that the Pentagon is operating weapons in Earth's orbit marks a landmark moment in space militarization aimed at ​deterring what U.S. officials describe as aggressive orbital activities from China and Russia, officials and analysts said."
• China warns US space weapons could fuel arms race - "China urged the United States to halt its military build-up in outer space after Washington acknowledged it ​has weapons deployed in orbit, while Chinese state media ‌warned the move could fuel a global arms race."

• China imposes new restrictions on overseas travel - "To stop cutting-edge technology and top-flight researchers from leaving, taking a step closer to a regime that had characterized a more closed-off China of decades past."
• Why Seeing China as a Normal Rising Power Misses the Point - "China isn't authoritarian but totalitarian. In an ordinary authoritarian state, however brutal, some independent institutions survive—be they a church, a temple, a nongovernmental organization—so long as they stay out of politics. A totalitarian party allows none of it. Every organization must be controlled by the party."

--- *EK-FF: Why I Can't Stop Thinking About 'The End of History'