Scientists say government must prepare for unlikely but ‘plausible’ 4C rise in temperature and a 2-metre rise in sea levels

The worst-case impacts of the climate crisis for the UK have been laid bare by scientists, ranging from a scorching 4C rise in temperatures to a 2-metre rise in sea level. Another scenario sees a plunge of 6C in temperature after the collapse of key Atlantic Ocean currents, massively disrupting farming and energy needs.

The impacts, some of which are linked to climate tipping points, are seen as low probability but plausible. The researchers said the scenarios filled a gap in forecasting that had left the UK unprepared for extreme outcomes.

Forecast is slightly cooler than the record 1.55C reached in 2024, but 2026 set to be among four hottest years since 1850

Next year will bring heat more than 1.4C above preindustrial levels, meteorologists project, as fossil fuel pollution continues to bake the Earth and fuel extreme weather.

The UK Met Office’s central forecast is slightly cooler than the 1.55C reached in 2024, the warmest year on record, but 2026 is set to be among the four hottest years dating back to 1850.

As global warming accelerates, about 480 million people in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula face intensifying and in some places unsurvivable heat, as well as drought, famine, and the risk of mass displacement, the World Meteorological Organization warned Thursday.

The 22 Arab region countries covered in the WMO’s new State of the Climate report produce about a quarter of the world’s oil, yet directly account for only 5 to 7 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions from their own territories. The climate paradox positions the region as both a linchpin of the global fossil-fuel economy and one of the most vulnerable geographic areas.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said extreme heat is pushing communities in the region to their physical limits. Droughts show no sign of letting up in one of the world’s most water-stressed regions, but at the same time, parts of it have been devastated by record rains and flooding, she added.

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