There is still an expensive war to fight, and if EU and UK politicians insist on using taxpayer funds for it, there will be little left to spend on public services

There were hopes that 2024 would be a good year. Economists talked of a soft landing, by which they meant a solid rebound from last year’s high-inflation, high-interest shock. A drop in inflation would spark cuts to the cost of borrowing while trade expanded, unemployment stayed low, and household disposable incomes increased.

This cheerful scenario was going to be played out across Europe and allow the EU and UK to pursue many of the goals, not least tackling climate change, that were delayed as ministers sought to protect business and household finances from the fallout from the pandemic and the Ukraine war.

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© Photograph: REX/Shutterstock

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© Photograph: REX/Shutterstock

Senior adviser who worked for Tony Blair and Gordon Brown says there is an ‘urgent imperative’ for a new government to address wealth inequality in Britain

A key New Labour adviser who worked for Tony Blair and Gordon Brown in Downing Street says there is an “overwhelming economic and ethical case” for Keir Starmer’s party to impose higher taxes on wealth if it wins the general election.

Writing in the Observer Patrick Diamond, professor of public policy at Queen Mary University of London, and his colleague Colm Murphy, a lecturer in British politics, say a Labour government will need to look at radical ways to raise money, not least because the plans for higher economic growth that the party is relying on may never materialise.

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© Photograph: Peter Nicholls/Getty Images

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© Photograph: Peter Nicholls/Getty Images

The Brown-era adage ‘Prudence with a purpose’ could be the way to obtain the economic stability that has eluded every UK government since the 2008 financial crisis

Keir Starmer appears destined for Downing Street. Even so, as the election campaign rumbles on, his party will be challenged to articulate a compelling platform that secures not only the keys to Number 10 but also the economic stability that has eluded every UK government since the 2008 financial crisis. That will demand fiscal discipline delivered not only through a prudent approach to public spending but also fundamental reform of our tax system.

In headline policy, Labour is committed to fiscal rules on spending and debt. Rachel Reeves promises to move towards balanced current spending and to secure a falling debt-to-GDP ratio by the fifth year of the forecast. As her speech on Tuesday argues, Labour believes such rules will underpin “stability” and “growth”.

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© Photograph: Murdo MacLeod/the Observer

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© Photograph: Murdo MacLeod/the Observer

Dublin does not seem a fair city to those who move there to work but can’t afford a home. Ireland’s coalition government says it is acting on housebuilding, but bosses and staff say it must try harder

Ireland’s economy is “absolutely booming,” says Stephen O’Dwyer, the founder and owner of Dublin’s Tang cafe/restaurant chain. “But it has left people facing a very unequal and difficult society to work in.”

At the top of O’Dwyer’s concerns is housing, which is cited by businesses large and small as a significant barrier to Ireland’s economic growth. The capital is not alone: cities from Cork to Limerick report acute housing shortages and rising levels of homelessness.

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© Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA

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© Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA

The two Tory PMs both told voters the economy had turned a corner – but there is little comparison now with 27 years ago

With a Labour victory looking increasingly probable, John Major’s pitch to voters in 1997 was simple. Britain had come a long way, the then prime minister said in his foreword to his party’s manifesto. “We must be sure that we do not throw away what we have gained, or lose the opportunities we have earned.”

Sound familiar? It should, because it is exactly the same argument Rishi Sunak is deploying as he seeks to defy the opinion polls and win a fifth successive general election victory for the Conservatives.

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© Composite: Getty/EPA

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© Composite: Getty/EPA

BCC calls for improved relations with the EU to cut the costs for business, while sticky inflation worries markets

Those IT problems at TSB appear to be solved!

A TSB spokesperson tells us:

“We’re aware some customers had issues logging into our app and online banking this morning. This issue is now resolved and we’re sorry for any inconvenience it caused.”

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© Photograph: Terry Mathews/Alamy

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© Photograph: Terry Mathews/Alamy

Central banks may not aim for such an outcome but will probably adjust interest rate decisions in a way that makes it more likely than deep recession

Listening to central bankers, one would think that the recent bout of high inflation was merely an excusable post-pandemic forecasting error made under extreme uncertainty. But while this narrative now prevails in markets and the financial press, it presumes a level of central-bank independence that is simply unrealistic in today’s volatile economic and political environment. And even if central banks manage to get inflation back down to 2% in the foreseeable future, the likelihood of another inflationary surge within the next five to seven years has significantly increased.

This is not to say that individual central bankers are untrustworthy. The problem is that most central banks are not as independent as many believe. In a global environment marked by political polarisation, onerous government debt burdens, geopolitical tensions, and deglobalisation, central-bank autonomy cannot be absolute. As unelected technocrats, central bankers may have short-term operational independence but governments ultimately control appointments and oversee budgets. In many countries, the government also has the power to reset monetary mandates.

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© Photograph: Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

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© Photograph: Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

Sticking to the Tories’ nonsensical fiscal rules, as it says it will, would be a political and economic mistake

Labour knows what it is like to inherit an economic mess. It did so in 1974, when Britain was on the verge of a period of high inflation and rising unemployment. It did so in the even tougher circumstances of 1945, and it will do so again if it wins on 4 July.

Things are not as bleak as they were when the second world war ended, but coping with the twin shocks of the past five years – a pandemic and a European war – has been a struggle. Repairing the damage will be costly and time consuming.

Larry Elliott is the Guardian’s economics editor

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© Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

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© Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Thinktank says proposal to pay for scheme by scrapping shared prosperity fund would downgrade efforts to level up country

• UK politics live – latest updates

Rishi Sunak’s election pledge to introduce mandatory national service would leave the UK’s poorest regions millions of pounds worse off, a thinktank has warned.

The prime minister announced last weekend that if he was re-elected, every 18-year-old would have to spend time in a competitive, full-time military commission or spend one weekend a month volunteering in “civil resilience”.

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© Photograph: Murdo MacLeod/The Guardian

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© Photograph: Murdo MacLeod/The Guardian

CBI data for May suggests slowdown in price growth is encouraging shoppers in Britain to buy more

Sales in British shops have bounced back in May, according to retail data that suggests slowing inflation is encouraging customers to buy more.

A net balance of +8% of retailers told a Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey that sales volumes were up this month compared with the same period a year earlier – a sharp improvement on the -44% year-on-year figure for April. The balance is the difference between companies who answered that the number of items was “up” or “down”.

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© Photograph: Maureen McLean/REX/Shutterstock

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© Photograph: Maureen McLean/REX/Shutterstock

Biggest drop since November 2021 as ‘unseasonable’ weather pushes retailers to continue promotions

Shop price inflation has eased to the lowest level since November 2021 after retailers cut the price of big purchases such as furniture and TVs as households keep a tight rein on spending amid cost of living pressures and poor weather.

Prices rose at an annual rate of 0.6% in May, down from 0.8% in April – the slowest pace since November 2021 – according to the latest monitor from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) trade body and the market research firm NielsenIQ.

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© Photograph: Maureen McLean/Rex/Shutterstock

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© Photograph: Maureen McLean/Rex/Shutterstock

The economy is growing again and inflation is only just above government’s 2% target, but it is all too little, too late

Winning five elections in a row is something no party has managed in modern times, and there are reasons for that.

Voters tire of the ruling party and want something new and fresh. Even more importantly, being in power for a long time increases the chances of bad stuff happening that tarnishes the government’s reputation. In the last 50 years, there has been a recession or economic crisis every 10 years or so on average: the mid 1970s, the early 80s, the early 90s, the late 2000s and the early 2020s.

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© Photograph: Kin Cheung/AP

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© Photograph: Kin Cheung/AP

Both major parties will try to conduct their campaigns without mentioning Brexit. But we cannot afford not to discuss it

‘Things can only get better” was a Labour party slogan before the 1997 general election. The reason why Rishi Sunak has surprised the nation, and what my old colleague Alan Watkins used to call the “chattering classes”, by calling for a snap election is that Sunak and his chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, have apparently decided that things can only get worse.

With low inflation figures – at last – and the possibility of a cut in interest rates, the two of them have been talking the economy up as though there were no tomorrow.

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© Photograph: Andy Buchanan/AFP/Getty Images

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© Photograph: Andy Buchanan/AFP/Getty Images

Hastings has the highest number of young people in England in bad health. But, amid a national epidemic of forced economic inactivity, there is hope

On a Wednesday night in Hastings, a handful of under-18s gather in the back of a former newspaper building for a weekly Dungeons and Dragons night. Around the table, a teenager peers from behind a floppy fringe, telling the other players of a monster with jaws wide enough to swallow a man whole. Behind him, two boys are playing pool. For the moment, there’s not an iPhone in sight.

Sidney Ewing, the youth worker overseeing the programme, says the majority of young people who come to the centre feel uncertain about their future. Their most popular night is for 16-to-18s, she says, a generation who lost two critical years of their education to Covid, with only screens for school and socialising. “A lot of them say they aren’t ready to go to university or start work because of their mental health,” she says. “You hear that a lot: ‘I need to sort myself out first.’”

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© Photograph: Andy Hall/The Observer

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© Photograph: Andy Hall/The Observer

The Beatles’ home city is pulling out all the stops for the arrival of the US megastar’s world tour in the UK

The name of music royalty hangs from Liverpool’s historic buildings. Art installations mark the biggest pop hits. An army of loyal fans is about to invade. But this isn’t Beatlemania. This is Taylor Town.

For one fortnight only, Liverpool will be transformed into a Taylor Swift “playground” to give the US megastar a “proper scouse welcome” as her history-making world tour lands in the UK.

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© Photograph: Richard Saker/the Guardian

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© Photograph: Richard Saker/the Guardian

We analyse a key point of contention in the general election campaign: the government’s record on pay, housing, energy and food bills

It is a simple question – and it will be at the heart of the general election campaign. After 14 years of Conservative government, people are asking: am I any better off?

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© Photograph: Peter Byrne/PA

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© Photograph: Peter Byrne/PA

From unemployment to inflation, the key data the Tories and Labour must explain to voters

Rishi Sunak’s slim chance of pulling off a victory against the odds in July’s general election depends on voters buying the argument that tough decisions taken since he became prime minister are paying off.

That claim will be tested over the next six weeks – with every piece of economic news more closely scrutinised than usual for evidence that the UK’s tentative economic recovery is gaining momentum or has started to falter.

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© Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

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© Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Growth across British businesses has cooled noticeably this month in an early blow for PM Rishi Sunak’s election campaign.

• ‘The vet presented it as: if you care, you pay’: who really profits from poorly pets?

Happy news from Europe: the eurozone economic recovery is gathering pace with new orders rising at the fastest rate in over a year, new data shows.

The latest survey of purchasing managers shows that eurozone companies are growing at the fastest rate in 12 months, with business activity, new orders and employment growing at a more rapid pace in May.

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© Photograph: Hollie Adams/Reuters

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© Photograph: Hollie Adams/Reuters

Economies decide elections but with growth tentative, inflation sticky, and tax cuts unlikely, why would the PM wait

• UK general election – latest updates
• News: Sunak calls election for 4 July
• Why is Sunak calling an election now?

When you are 20 or so points behind in the opinion polls calling an election before you need to do so is a high-risk strategy. Yet Rishi Sunak has decided that holding on until the autumn is an even bigger gamble. The economy decides elections, and as far as the prime minister is concerned, this could be as good as it gets.

Sunak has only come to this view recently. After sliding into a shallow recession at the end of 2023, the economy has only just returned to growth. Living standards – which took a hammering during the cost of living crisis – have been picking up. Inflation has fallen from a high of 11.1% in October 2022 to 2.3%, only just above its target.

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© Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA

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© Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA

Exclusive Harris poll for the Guardian shows 55% believe economy is shrinking, in troubling sign for president’s re-election bid

• Do you know how US economy is actually doing? Try our interactive quiz

Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.

The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:

55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.

49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.

49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.

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© Illustration: Marcus Peabody/Guardian Design

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© Illustration: Marcus Peabody/Guardian Design

Exclusive Harris poll for the Guardian shows the majority of Americans think the country’s in recession – but it isn’t. Test your own knowledge here

• Exclusive: majority of Americans wrongly believe US is in recession – and most blame Biden

The United States is less than six months away from sending either Joe Biden or Donald Trump back to the White House.

For many voters mulling this decision, the economy is front of mind. But how it’s doing, and how it’s feeling, are not one and the same.

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© Illustration: Marcus Peabody/Guardian Design

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© Illustration: Marcus Peabody/Guardian Design

Drop in April is smaller than forecast but level is still lowest in almost three years

• Big drop in UK inflation disguises more disappointing details
• Which goods and services have changed most in price?
• Business live – latest updates

UK inflation fell to 2.3% in April – its lowest level for almost three years – but the decline was smaller than expected, denting hopes of an early interest rate cut.

City analysts had forecast the annual increase in the cost of goods and services would fall to 2.1%, close to the Bank of England’s 2% target.

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© Photograph: Matthew Horwood/Getty Images

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© Photograph: Matthew Horwood/Getty Images

Services inflation higher than expected; electricity and gas prices in record 27% drop, food price rises lowest since 2021

Financial markets have scaled back their expectations for an interest rate cut in June, and August is also looking slightly less likely. They are forecasting a reduction by September, though.

Before today’s inflation data, which showed services inflation is more stubborn than expected, markets had fully priced in two rate cuts this year, one by August and another one before the end of the year. Investors are now split on whether there will be a second reduction.

The cost-of-living crisis is not over - no matter how much ministers pretend it is. Prices are still going up. Food and energy bills are much higher than a couple of years ago. And many are being hit by soaring mortgage repayments.

That’s because household budgets have been decimated by the highest price rises in the G7 and wages have flatlined over the last 14 years.

Pay packets are still worth less today than in 2008, with working people on course to end this Parliament poorer than at the start.

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© Photograph: Neil Hall/EPA

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© Photograph: Neil Hall/EPA

Service sector inflation, monitored closely by Bank of England, barely budged in April

• UK inflation falls by less than expected to 2.3%
• Business live – latest updates

The annual inflation rate fell sharply in April. Prices are rising more slowly than at any time in almost three years. Inflation is lower in the UK than it is in the EU.

Even so, the latest bulletin on the cost of living from the Office for National Statistics was mildly disappointing. April’s inflation figure was always going to be good, with a sharp fall guaranteed by the fact the energy price increases of a year earlier were not repeated.

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© Photograph: Murdo MacLeod/The Guardian

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© Photograph: Murdo MacLeod/The Guardian

A reduction in the consumption of carbon-intensive products and services is not something to complain about, writes Terry Cannon

You cannot have it both ways and complain that global warming will harm GDP (Economic damage from climate change six times worse than thought – report, 17 May). A drop in global GDP is one of the best things that can happen to reduce global warming if it reduces consumption of carbon-intensive products and services. GDP is a very poor way to measure the negative impacts of global warming.

Much more relevant is to understand people’s wellbeing and their livelihoods which, as is well known, are not measured very well by GDP. What needs to be understood is how the different impacts of climate change affect the many types of livelihood.

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© Photograph: Jake Lyell/Alamy

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© Photograph: Jake Lyell/Alamy

With prices forecast to increase at their slowest pace since 2021, we look at the biggest risers in goods and services

After three long years of feeling the pinch, UK consumers finally look likely to get some relief from surging prices on Wednesday, when the Office for National Statistics releases its inflation figures for April. The data is widely expected to show that prices are rising at the lowest rate since summer 2021.

Inflation of about 2% is significant for economists, marking a long-awaited snap back towards the Bank of England’s target. It still means prices are rising for the consumer, but not as steeply as they have been. The last few years of inflation have been the sharpest within at least 40 years, jumping the equivalent of 11 years of normal 2% inflation within just three years, a total rise of 22%. At the same time, real wages are down by 2.3% since early 2021, making it harder for most people to afford their energy bills and the weekly shop.

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© Photograph: Matthew Horwood/Getty Images

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© Photograph: Matthew Horwood/Getty Images

Body says £30bn fiscal gap cannot be filled by higher growth or extra borrowing. So how will No 11 ease pressure on public finances?

A report that tells the UK government it faces a £30bn funding gap that cannot be filled by higher growth or extra borrowing is a blow to both the current chancellor and the next one.

Tuesday’s International Monetary Fund assessment of the UK economy and Whitehall spending argues that betting on the economy revving up over the rest of the decade will not be sufficient to pay for all the likely welfare bills associated with an ageing population.

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© Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

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© Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

Comments come as Commission president hints EU could impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles

• Business live – latest updates

Janet Yellen, the US treasury secretary, has urged the EU to intervene urgently to dampen the growing export levels of Chinese cut-price green technology including solar panels and wind turbines, pushing European leaders to move to a full-scale trade war.

At the same time she urged German bank executives on Tuesday to step up efforts to comply with sanctions against Russia and shut down efforts to circumvent them to avoid potential penalties themselves that could see the US cut them off from dollar access.

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© Photograph: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images

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© Photograph: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images

World body’s latest health check of UK economy says ‘unpopular revenue-raising measures’ may be needed

Jeremy Hunt is preparing a pre-election cut in national insurance despite a warning from the International Monetary Fund of a looming £30bn hole in the public finances, Downing Street has indicated.

Rishi Sunak’s spokesperson said the government rejected the IMF’s argument that there was no room for a third cut in NI in less than a year and that the Treasury should instead be thinking about tax increases or spending cuts.

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© Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

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© Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

We’re keen to hear from employers in Britain which job openings they have been having trouble to recruit for, and why

Employers in the UK have cut back on hiring new staff, pushing the number of advertised vacancies down on the quarter by 43,000 to 908,000, while the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 3.9% in January from 3.8% in December, according to the Office for National Statistics.

We’re interested to hear from UK employers whether there have been vacancies in their companies they have been struggling to hire qualified staff for, and why they think that has been the case.

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© Photograph: Philip Toscano/PA

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© Photograph: Philip Toscano/PA

The IMF is delivering its verdict on the UK economy, and signalling its opposition to pre-election tax cuts from Jeremy Hunt

• IMF tells UK not to cut taxes as it warns over £30bn fiscal hole

Pennon Group, the water compay behind the waterborne disease outbreak in Devon, has raised its dividend payout for the last year.

Pennon, which owns South West Water, Bristol Water and Bournemouth Water, is handing shareholders dividends worth £126.9m for the last financial year, or 135 more than the £111.7m paid out for 2022-2023.

“Whilst the results we are announcing today are based on our performance for the last financial year, we are 100% focused on returning a safe water supply to the people and businesses in and around Brixham. Normal service has returned for 85% of customers, but we won’t stop until the local drinking water is returned to the quality all our customers expect and deserve. Our absolute priority continues to be the health and safety of our customers and our operational teams are working tirelessly around the clock to deliver this.

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© Photograph: Tim Grist Photography/Getty Images

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© Photograph: Tim Grist Photography/Getty Images

Employers in UK, one of 15 countries studied, willing to pay 14% wage premium for jobs requiring AI skills

The sectors of the global economy most heavily exposed to artificial intelligence (AI) are witnessing a marked productivity increase and command a significant wage premium, according to a report.

Boosting hopes that AI might help lift the global economy out of a 15-year, low-growth trough, a PwC study found productivity growth was almost five times as rapid in parts of the economy where AI penetration was highest than in less exposed sectors.

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© Photograph: Dado Ruvić/Reuters

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© Photograph: Dado Ruvić/Reuters

Bim Afolami’s comments distance British government from protectionist moves by US

The UK cannot afford to give the “cold shoulder” to China, the City minister said on Monday, in comments that will distance the British government from the Biden administration’s protectionist crackdown.

Addressing financial services bosses at the City Week conference in London’s Guildhall, Bim Afolami said it was “crucial” to engage with strategic competitors such as Beijing, and that the UK risked losing control of its economic future if it failed to find common ground.

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© Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA

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© Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA

Ben Broadbent says direct impact of Covid and Ukraine war on inflation has faded and BoE is waiting for longer-term effects to decline

• Business live – latest updates

UK interest rates could be cut this summer, the Bank of England’s outgoing deputy governor said on Monday, adding to the expectation that a first reduction in borrowing costs could come as soon as next month.

Ben Broadbent, the Bank’s deputy governor for monetary policy, said that if the economy evolves as expected, borrowing costs could possibly be lowered “some time over the summer” in response to a steep fall in inflation.

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© Photograph: Hannah McKay/Reuters

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© Photograph: Hannah McKay/Reuters

Protectionism in the form of tariffs is justified but the focus will be on whether Beijing retaliates

The global economy is fragmenting and a new era of protectionism has dawned. Dreams by free marketeers of a frictionless world in which goods and services moved seamlessly from country to country are dead.

That was the clear message from Joe Biden’s decision last week to target China with a range of new, much higher tariffs on electric vehicles and a range of other products crucial to sectors seen by the White House as vital to the future health of the US economy and to national security.

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© Photograph: Costfoto/NurPhoto/Rex

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© Photograph: Costfoto/NurPhoto/Rex

Companies are deserting the FTSE because of a shortage of investment – but there is a solution

Britain had it in its power to be a genuine hi-tech superpower. Instead, the opportunity slipped through our fingers, as we have been “tech-stripped” on a monumental scale. On one estimate, up to half the FTSE 100 could now be populated by vigorous British tech companies but those are all now foreign owned with one exception, Sage. The implications for our industrial, business, services and even defence base are dire – one of the most important condemnations of the last 14 years.

The chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, complacently declared last week that this was just how capitalism operated – even as we learned that another 21 companies worth £24.6bn had joined the exodus from the UK’s public markets this year alone. It was a variant of Philip Hammond’s comment in 2016 on Japanese SoftBank taking over yet another of our tech jewels, the chip designer ARM. What was obviously an exercise in technological vandalism was instead proof positive that Britain was “open for business”, a view echoed at the time by that other high priest of wealth generation, Nigel Farage. This reflex mantra of Tory ministers and Brexiters alike is a necessity: to say anything else would reveal the paucity of their world view.

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© Photograph: Bloomberg/Getty Images

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© Photograph: Bloomberg/Getty Images

The chancellor will have good news to pass on this week. But he knows the cost of living crisis may not be over yet

Jeremy Hunt knows it. Rachel Reeves knows it too. The Office for National Statistics will come bearing good news on Wednesday when it releases the latest inflation figures. The only real question is just how good the news will be.

In the year to March, annual inflation as measured by the consumer prices index stood at 3.2%. The figure for April will be a lot lower and if Hunt gets lucky it might even fall as low as the government’s 2% target.

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© Photograph: WPA/Getty Images

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© Photograph: WPA/Getty Images

We and the EU must show the Russian leader we mean business and seize $300bn of his country’s central bank funds

Vladimir Putin is digging deep to win the war with Ukraine. And it could be only months before the tide turns in his favour. If he pummels Ukraine into submission, a military victory will quickly become a wider economic disaster, which is why we under­estimate at our peril how much we need to focus on the war.

The Russian leader, who was inaugurated for a fifth term as president a fortnight ago, ditched his old friend and defence minister Sergei Shoigu on Monday in favour of an economist to make sure Moscow’s war machine runs more efficiently. That economist, Andrei Belousov, has been likened to Albert Speer, the architect who served as the minister of armaments and war production in Nazi Germany.

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© Photograph: RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL PRESS OFFICE/AFP/Getty Images

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© Photograph: RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL PRESS OFFICE/AFP/Getty Images

Podcast (2:42:24) with transcript. Christopher Brown is a professor at Columbia specializing in the slave trade and abolition. He argues that abolition, though obvious in retrospect, was not inevitable and relied on a particular set of circumstances that could have been disrupted at many points. He has also written about Arming Slaves and has an interesting review of Capitalism and Slavery at LRB.

A 1C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world gross domestic product, researchers have found

The economic damage wrought by climate change is six times worse than previously thought, with global heating set to shrink wealth at a rate consistent with the level of financial losses of a continuing permanent war, research has found.

A 1C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world gross domestic product (GDP), the researchers found, a far higher estimate than that of previous analyses. The world has already warmed by more than 1C (1.8F) since pre-industrial times and many climate scientists predict a 3C (5.4F) rise will occur by the end of this century due to the ongoing burning of fossil fuels, a scenario that the new working paper, yet to be peer-reviewed, states will come with an enormous economic cost.

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© Photograph: Spyros Bakalis/AFP/Getty Images

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© Photograph: Spyros Bakalis/AFP/Getty Images

Last week, General Motors announced that it would end production of the Chevrolet Malibu, which the company first introduced in 1964. Although not exactly a head turner (the Malibu was "so uncool, it was cool," declared the New York Times), the sedan has become an American fixture, even an icon [...] Over the past 60 years, GM produced some 10 million of them. With a price starting at a (relatively) affordable $25,100, Malibu sales exceeded 130,000 vehicles last year, a 13% annual increase and enough to rank as the #3 Chevy model [...] Still, that wasn't enough to keep the car off GM's chopping block. [...] In that regard, it will have plenty of company. Ford stopped producing sedans for the U.S. market in 2018. And it was Sergio Marchionne, the former head of Stellantis, who triggered the headlong retreat in 2016 when he declared that Dodge and Chrysler would stop making sedans. [...] As recently as 2009, U.S. passenger cars [...] outsold light trucks (SUVs, pickups, and minivans), but today they're less then 20% of new car purchases. The death of the Malibu is confirmation, if anyone still needs it, that the Big Three are done building sedans. That decision is bad news for road users, the environment, and budget-conscious consumers—and it may ultimately come around to bite Detroit.

Detroit Killed the Sedan. We May All Live to Regret It [Fast Company]

All these right-wing thinkers are much more comfortable thinking about the blurred lines between sexual and economic politics than many thinkers on the left. And they understand that Keynesianism rests on a certain kind of sexual contract. Any challenge to this order—whether it be an escalation of wage or benefit claims, or the flight from sexual normativity, or unmarried women claiming welfare benefits—disrupts the fiscal and monetary calculus on which Keynesianism rests. Public spending becomes profligate, debt burdens become intolerable, inflation spirals out of control. All of which is to say that the state is subsidizing marginal lives more than it is subsidizing capital. from Extravagances of Neoliberalism, a conversation with Melinda Cooper [The Baffler; ungated]